If I were the GM: September Moves

September 1 is right around the corner, coming at you this Thursday. It's one of the most exciting days for prospect freaks like myself (along with the last week of Spring Training, the date of the MLB draft, the signing deadline and the date of the Rule 5 draft. It's going to be nice to see the fruits ripening from our suddenly deep farm system.

The Nats have a lot of decisions to be made, and most likely, I am going to end up disappointed. No team carries a full 40-man roster during September call-ups, so perhaps what I'm thinking is a bit unrealistic. Still, in the best interest of the future of the franchise, here's what I would do with the Nats on September 1:

CLEARING ROSTER SPACE
The Nats have a full 40-man roster right now...sort of. The Nats currently have four players on the 15-day DL who can be moved over to the 60-day DL: Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus (if they shut him down, which I think they will), Doug Slaten and Adam LaRoche. Slaten is on the rehabilitation track, but was nothing special when healthy, so I would outright him to AAA or release him. In addition, Adam Carr is out for the season and can be put on the 60-day DL as well.

I would DFA Garrett Mock, Craig Stammen and Alex Cora to create an extra 3 spots, giving the Nats 8 total. Mock's time has been up for quite a while and Stammen struggled in AAA this year. While I'm not opposed to keeping a veteran infielder around, Cora is a leech on the lineup, hitting .218/.282/.254 this season; under my plan, the Nats will have 2 extra middle infielders up that need lots of playing time.

There a a few other players that I could see the Nats DFAing (Maya, Severino and Brown), but all three have enough upside (or in Maya's case, the Nats have invested enough in him) that they'll almost certainly stick around at least until Spring Training next year.

GUARANTEED ADDITIONS TO THE 40-MAN
These guys are almost certain to be called up:
2B Stephen Lombardozzi: Everybody loves a switch-hitting second baseman who can hit for average and get on base. Lombo plays solid defense and has seen his power numbers rise throughout his time in the minors.

LHSP Tom Milone: 2.91 ERA in high A ball in 2009. 2.85 ERA in AA in 2010. 3.33 ERA in AAA in 2011. With solid performance, great control and an other-worldly 10.64 strikeouts per walk rate in AAA this year, Milone is certainly getting a chance this year. Milone is still 15 innings pitched shy of his 2010 finals as well, so he could conceivably throw another 30 innings at least.

C Derek Norris: Norris' prospect status has faded a bit due to a drop in batting average and power in 2010 and average again in 2011, but he's still a shiny prospect at a vital position to have depth at. His .203/.353/.429 bat won't get a lot of opportunities in September, but he'll be up to learn from Pudge, Ramos, Flores and the gang. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get some innings at 1B.

RHSP Brad Peacock: Peacock has been awesome in 2011, going 14-3 with a 2.48 ERA in 141 and 2/3 innings. His walks have risen and strikeouts have fallen significantly in AAA compared to his AA stats, but he's still having a fantastic season. Peacock is basically at his 2010 workload, so he will probably not pitch a whole lot in September.

All four of these players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December, so they need to be September call-ups or added to the 40-man roster after the season to be protected.

MY 40-MAN ADDITIONS
2B Matt Antonelli: Am I the only one that is impressed with the fact that this guy went basically two years between competitive games and came back to hit .294/.383/.443 in AAA? The 2006 Padres first rounder is still only 26 and can attribute his minor league struggles to injuries rather than poor performance. I'm convinced that this is the real Matt Antonelli, not the one that was rushed to the Majors in 2008 only to hit .193/.292/.281. If Lombardozzi wasn't in the system, Antonelli would be a slam dunk call-up, but since there are at-bats to share, I guess we'll just have to see about Antonelli.

OF Erik Komatsu: This wouldn't be completely merit-based, as Komatsu has only hit .242/.296/.303 for the Nats in AA this year (after hitting .294/.393/.416 for the Brewers' AA affiliate, though). Rather, this would be a show-me situation; Komatsu is Rule 5 eligible after the season and could help the Nats as soon as next season as a 4th OF/defensive replacement type. By getting him some ML reps now, the Nats could make the decision of whether to go with Komatsu (or a guy like Corey Brown) next year or to continue to rely on veteran 4th OF types like Nix, Ankiel and Gomes.

RHP Rafael Martin: Dubbed "close to the big leagues" by Stan Kasten when he was signed out of Mexico in February of 2010, Martin turned a corner in 2011 after a mixed bag of results last season. In 40 and 2/3 innings, Martin has a 1.55 ERA and 12 saves to go along with his 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. A lot of people have forgotten about Martin, but he legitimately deserves a shot, and at 27 years old, will likely get one soon.

LHP Oliver Perez: Okay, the former Padre/Pirate/Met isn't the same pitcher who struck out 239 batters in 2004 as a 22-year-old or the one that threw 371 innings of 3.91 ERA ball for the Mets in 2007-08, but he did improve himself in 2011. Ollie went 3-4 in Harrisburg with a 3.04 ERA in 68 innings, but I'm pretty impressed with his 2.9 BB/9; it's far from incredible by anyone's standards, but it was his second lowest walk  rate at any level in his entire professional career (after 2.3 K/9 in 47 and 2/3 innings of AAA ball in 2003). If the Nats don't call up Perez now, he's likely gone after the season, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll see if the 30 year old who got paid $12 million this year by the Mets to pitch for another team has anything left in the tank.

OTHERS OF NOTE
RHSP Erik Arnesen: Good control, overall performance in 2011. At 27, his window is closing.

1B/OF Michael Aubrey: Former top Indians prospect hit .273/.363/.471 in Syracuse this year. He's not a big power guy (despite having a 4 homer game, he hit only 11 total in 82 games), but walked more than he struck out this season and plays solid defense at 1B.

OF Gregor Blanco: Awful 2011 season will prevent him from getting a call-up, but he is a great base-stealer (24/26 this season) with .358 career OBP in the majors in 836 PA and solid defense. He's similar to Nyjer Morgan (with less power, better baserunning skills, less ego) and is still just 27.

OF Archie Gilbert: He is a 27 year old playing in AA for the third straight year, so I'm not expecting a callup. Still, Archie has good plate discipline (29 BB/35 K) and great speed (31/35 SB) and can play CF. His prospect window may have closed, but he could make it as a righthanded Nyjer-type (sorry to keep bringing that name up).

IF Tug Hulett: Another ML retread, Hulett is hitting .273/.343/.414 this season in AAA. While he's not a speed demon, power hitter or defensive whiz, he does everything just well enough to keep getting shots, and could help out the Nats if they needed a 2B/3B in a pinch. Unfortunately for Tug, the Nats have a ton of young talent blocking him, so he likely won't get the call.

RHRP Jeff Mandel: His 3.39 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 are all improvements over his career averages. His track record isn't that great (although he had a nice 2009 season in Potomac and Harrisburg), but could get a look at some point soon.

RHSP Shairon Martis: Remember me? We were all reminded of the guy who started out 5-0 for us in 2009 this week when he tossed a no-no in AA ball, but he really deserves another look. Martis' control has improved this season (2.7 BB/9, down from 3.0 career) while vastly improving his strikeout numbers (10.1 K/9 is almost 3 K above his career average and way better than he had done at any higher level in his career). Sure, it's AA, but it looks like Martis has legitimately changed himself as a pitcher.

RHSP Brad Meyers: After dominating AA to start the 2011 season (2.48 ERA, 0 BB/38 K in 36 and 1/3 innings pitched) Meyers has cooled off a little in AAA (3.57 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 in 85 and 2/3 innings). Ultimately, he doesn't have the stuff of Peacock or the numbers of Milone, so he's my odd man out, but I bet he'll be added to the 40-man in the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

1B Tyler Moore: I'm admittedly not a fan of Moore at all due to his horrendous plate discipline (24 BB and 132 K this season), but you can't argue with back-to-back 30-HR seasons. He's done both while playing at an older age for his level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nats challenge him either here or in the Arizona Fall League before they have to decide on whether or not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

LHSP Danny Rosenbaum: Think Tom Milone, just a level lower. Rosenbaum has a 2.28 career ERA across all levels, but I'd like to see some improvement in his BB and K rates (2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 over his career, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this season) before he gets a shot. He's still only 23 and will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, so no rush on Danny boy.

C Jhonatan Solano: More of a contender for an ML role than I figured he would be at the beginning of the season, but with Ramos and Flores already up, Norris likely getting a shot and Pudge returning from the DL, Solano will likely have to do with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training next season.

RHRP Josh Wilkie: He should have gotten a shot in 2009 or 2010, but it's better late than never for the 27 year old Syracuse closer. While his 2011 stats aren't as great as his career numbers, a 3.10 ERA, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 isn't bad by any means.

LHRP Cory VanAllen: I wrote him off halfway through 2010 when he was back in Potomac with a 4.14 ERA as a 25 year old reliever, but he had a career resurgence this season, his second year in the pen. VanAllen threw 54 and 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball, allowing 3.6 BB/9 but striking out 11.2 batters per 9. He's a nice LOOGY candidate and honestly can't be any worse than Burnett or Slaten right now.

RHRP Zech Zinicola: Another 2006 college pitcher who was thought to be a quick-mover, Zinicola has finally figured out the upper levels, throwing 37 innings of 1.95 ERA ball with 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9. Seeing guys like he and VanAllen have career resurgences is great, and they will likely get the chance to battle it out in Spring Training next year.


Here are some other resources if you want to think of your own September call-ups: Nationals Prospects (check the comments for Rule 5 eligibles) and Federal Baseball.

Syracuse options

The Nats are playing great baseball, with 5 straight wins and a +1 run differential on the season. That doesn't mean the team cannot be improved, though. Here are a few players currently playing in AAA Syracuse that could give the Nats a hand:

Hitters
IF Matt Antonelli is tops on my list for a callup. He's better than Bixler and is the only infielder in the Majors or AAA other than Desmond or Espinosa that has a future with the team. If you haven't already, read my interview with Antonelli here.

1B Michael Aubrey has struggled over his last few weeks, hitting .167/.323/.333 in his last 10 games. Still, he's an OBP machine with a little pop and a nice glove. Adam LaRoche's season-ending injury makes me want to call up Aubrey even more, as he's a left handed hitter who can serve as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement for Morse late in games (something Stairs is incapable of).

1B Chris Marrero is in the right place at the wrong time. His AAA numbers are solid (.290/.351/.450), but Morse's hot streak and RH bat make it so calling up Marrero and sitting him on the bench would be a detriment to the 22 year old's development. We'll see him in September I'm sure.

Pitchers
LHP Tom Milone has allowed more HR (5) than BB (4). And 5 HR ain't a whole lot to allow in 70 and 1/3 innings, anyways. With a 19:1 K:BB ratio and a respectable 3.58, we will probably see Milone in DC sometime this season, albeit the role may come as a reliever.

RHP Josh Wilkie probably should have gotten the call in 2009 and 10, but I'll still hold out hope that 2011 will be the year he gets his shot. While peripheral stats aren't as good as they were in 2009 and 10, the fact that he's put up consistently solid ones in three straight years at AAA make him a viable option.

RHP Brad Meyers has less BB (3) than Milone in more innings (76 and 1/3) across two levels. He's been prone to the long-ball in Syracuse (5 HR allowed in 7 starts), but has put up solid stats otherwise. Meyers has spent a considerably smaller amount of time in Syracuse so he's on the bottom of the totem pole. Still, a 24.33 K:BB ratio throughout his minor league appearances this year is awesome.

Nationals Draft History: 2008-10

If you haven't already, check out my first post from this morning about the Nats' draft history from 2005-07. Here is the 2008-10 edition.

2008:

1st round pick: RHP Aaron Crow (9th overall, did not sign)

2nd round pick: OF Destin Hood (55th overall)

3rd round pick: MI Danny Espinosa (87th overall)

Other notable picks: LHP Graham Hicks (4th round), C Adrian Nieto (5th round), LHP Tom Milone (10th round), RHP Louis Coleman (14th round), OF J.P. Ramirez (15th round), 1B Tyler Moore (16th round), MI Steve Lombardozzi (19th round), LHP Bryan Harper (31st round), C Robert Brantly (46th round)

Still in the organization: Hood, Espinosa, Nieto, RHP Paul Demny (6th round), 1B J.R. Higley (9th round), Milone, Ramirez, Moore, MI Jose Lozada (17th round), LHP Bobby Hansen (18th round), Lombardozzi, OF Chris Curran (22nd round). 

Notes: 

-129 ML games played by Nats draft picks in '08, good for 3.4 WAR. 2 of those 3 players, however, declined to sign with the Nats and were redrafted (coincidentally by the Royals): 

-Crow and Coleman. Crow has been lights out in the bigs in 2011, despite very poor minor league numbers in 2010. 

-Hood has improved his batting approach tremendously in 2011, improving his BB rate and dropping his K rate. His isolated power has skyrocketed, his stolen base rate has gotten better and his BABIP does not suggest he's getting lucky. It's just high A ball, but I'm impressed so far.

-I've been a big fan of Espi since he was drafted. At the time, he was seen as an average player with no outstanding tools but a great work ethic. Now, he's got a nice combination of speed, power and patience to go with a plus arm and good glove.

-Hicks was another player dealt in the Gorzelanny trade. He has a 2.33 ERA in A ball this year, but with unimpressive peripherals.

-Nieto was a great value pick in the 5th round as a switch-hitting catcher with average or better skills both with the bat and the glove. Injuries and a PED suspension (noticing a pattern here?) have limited his playing time, but his offensive contributions have been pretty much limited to walks so far, with awful contact and power numbers.

-Milone is awesome, and will find his way to DC soon.

-Ramirez took 1 step forward with a solid 2010 campaign (.296/.341/.470) but 2 steps back so far in 2011 with a .216/.256/.351 triple slash.

-Moore finally signed in 2008 after being drafted by the Nats for the 3rd time.

-Lombardozzi will be in DC in not too long, just like Milone. It's always a good thing to have 3 decent young MI options like the Nats do.

-Curran was a friend of DC Sports Plus. Best wishes to him.

-The Nats drafted Bryce's brother Bryan in 2008. He'll be available in this year's draft, but lasted all the way until the 27th round last year anyways.

-Brantly did not sign with the Nats and was drafted in the 3rd round by the Tigers in 2010.

2009:

1st round picks: RHP Stephen Strasburg (1st overall) and RHP Drew Storen (10th overall)

2nd round pick: 2B Jeff Kobernus (50th overall)

3rd round pick: RHP Trevor Holder (81st overall)

Other notable picks: RHP A.J. Morris (4th round), RHP Dean Weaver (7th round), RHP Taylor Jordan (9th round), RHP Nathan Karns (12th round), RHP Patrick Lehman (13th round), LHP Danny Rosenbaum (22nd round), LHP Chris Manno (38th round in 2009, 26th round in 2010), 

Still in the organization: Strasburg, Storen, Kobernus, Holder, SS Michael Taylor (6th round), Weaver, MI Roberto Perez (8th round), Jordan, LHP Paul Applebee (10th round), CI/OF Justin Bloxom (11th round), Lehman, IF Sean Nicols (16th round), LHP Chad Jenkins (17th round), LHP Mitchell Clegg (21st round), Rosenbaum,  RHP Brandon King (27th round), RHP Matt Swynenberg (28th round), LHP Evan Bronson (29th round), RHP Rob Wort (30th round), RHP Kyle Morrison (32nd round), RHP Shane McCatty (34th round), Manno, 

Notes: 

-2009 Nats draftees have played 93 games with 2.3 WAR (1.3 for Strasburg and 1.0 for Storen).

-Kobernus has been a massive disappointment to date. I was a big believer in him, but his bat simply has not developed.

-Holder was a terrible pick. Having excellent control is great and all, but when you're getting bombed all day every day, not walking people just means all of the baserunners were the result of hits.

-Morris was seen as a good pick at the time, and was the final player dealt to the Cubs in the Gorzelanny trade. He hasn't pitched in 2011 due to injury, but at the moment he looks like the best out of the bunch that was moved.

-I still wonder why the Nats (or the Padres in 2010's 13th round for that matter) couldn't seal the deal on 5th round LHP Miguel Pena. 

-What happened to Nathan Karns? He was a last-minute, over slot pick who still hasn't pitched for the Nats.

-Lehman has 0 walks this season and over 5 K per every BB in his career.

-King still intrigues me despite his lack of experience and control.

-Shane McCatty is still the son of Steve McCatty.

-The 1-2 punch of Strasburg/Storen is awesome. Too bad the rest of the draft is mediocre.

2010:

1st round pick: OF Bryce Harper (1st overall)

2nd round pick: LHP Sammy Solis (51st overall)

3rd round pick: SS Rick Hague (83rd overall)

Other notable picks: RHP A.J. Cole (4th round), RHP Neil Holland (11th round), LHP Robbie Ray (12th round), LHP Chris Manno (26th round), 

Still in the organization: Harper, Solis, Hague, Cole, SS Jason Martinson (5th round), C Cole Leonida (6th round), OF Kevin Keyes (7th round), LHP Matt Grace (8th round), RHP Aaron Barrett (9th round), IF Blake Kelso (10th round), Holland, Ray, RHP Christopher McKenzie (13th round), C David Freitas (15th round), RHP Mark Herrera (16th round), RHP Tyler Hanks (17th round), 3B/OF Justin Miller (18th round), OF Wade Moore (19th round), OF Chad Mozingo (20th round), OF Connor Rowe (21st round), RHP Cameron Selik (22nd round), RHP Colin Bates (23rd round), 1B Russell Moldenhauer (24th round), LHP Christian Meza (25th round), Manno, OF Rick Hughes (29th round), C Jeremy Mayo (31st round), OF Randolph Oduber (32nd round), OF Wander Nunez (36th round), RHP Kevin Cahill (41st round), OF Rashad Hatcher (49th round).

Notes:

-No ML time yet by the 2010 draft class, which is not a surprise.

-Harper is obviously living up to expectations so far, hitting .338/.434/.610 with 13 HR and 12 SB in 55 games.

-For a pitcher labeled as close to ML ready, Solis has pitched very little so far (13 and 2/3 innings combined in 2010-11). Way too early to make judgments on him, though.

-Hague's bat has looked good so far (.319/.388/.493 total), but his fielding has been atrocious (.885 fielding percentage). Look for a position change in the near future.

-Cole's peripherals look great so far: 2.3 BB/9, 10.5 K/9 in 7 appearances.

-Martinson is walking and stealing bases, but has high K's, a low batting average and little power.

-Leonida's 2011 triple slash: .232/.358/.357. 2010? .146/.241/.184. Improvement is improvement, I guess.

-It's hard to be a stud power hitter when you don't make any contact. For this reason, Kevin Keyes better improve quickly.

-Kelso's .329/.389/.407 triple slash from 2010-11 looks nice.

-Holland has been awesome last year and this year: 1.88 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9 in 48 IP. Keep it going, Neil.

-Robbie Ray has been even better, with a 0.36 ERA, 4.0 H/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 25 IP. Beast mode!

-McKenzie has been the opposite: 9.31 ERA, 12.5 H/9, 6.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 48 and 1/3 innings. Ruh row.

-Tim Smalling (14th round) of Virginia Tech did not sign due to an injured labrum. We'll see if the Nationals take another run at him this year. 

-Freitas has 31 walks and 28 K's this season. His power has also improved. Could be a nice find in the 15th round.

-Where's Moldy? Russell Moldenhauer hit .268/.377/.500 in Vermont last year but has yet to appear in 2011.

-Manno is a monster. In 27 innings this season, he has allowed 9 hits and 1 earned run. He needs to work on his walks (3.3 BB/9 this season, 4.0 in his career), but with a career 14.6 K/9 to counter the walks, it's not as much of a concern.

-Mayo hit .284/.397/.477 last year. We'll see if he can repeat that success at Potomac this season.

-Nick Serino (37th round) and Tyler Oliver (35th round) have been released to my knowledge.

LVL's: Least Valuable LOOGYs

Doug Slaten
The 2011 version of Slaten is the posterchild for anyone who has ever argued that ERA is overvalued. He's not getting lefties out (.308/.333/.538 against in 2011) and should never face a righty at all (.375/.516/.625). Slaten's walk rate has skyrocketed to 6 per 9 innings, The sparkling 2.25 ERA is a product of having almost 95% of the runners he leaves on base stranded by the likes of Clippard, Storen and company. He's at his worst with runners on base (1.014 OPS against) and with 2 outs (1.208 OPS against). Basically, Slaten's 2010 magic has not been renewed this season.

Sean Burnett
Burnett is not nearly as bad as Slaten has been this year, but you can't tell by his 5.59 ERA. That being said, Burnett has still struggled mightily in 2011, with a K/9 drop from almost 9 to under 5. His control is better than ever, though, and his FIP stands at a solid 3.65. Burnett's contract makes him a better bet to stick around and work out his troubles in the majors, and for good reason in my opinion. He does have tons to work on, though, and in the meantime Riggleman should be reluctant to use him in key situations until his performance improves.

There are no perfect replacements for Slaten or Burnett. Rizzo undoubtedly wants to carry two LHP's in the bullpen (which would be great if either of them could actually get batters out), so that leaves us with a handful of options in AAA and AA:
Oliver Perez has a 0.75 ERA, including 6.75 K's per 9 and 1.50 BB's per 9 in 12 AA innings. He could surely use more seasoning in AA, but so far he has retired 12 of 14 lefties he has faced, with 0 walks and 4 strikeouts.
Atahualpa Severino could get the call if the Nats wait a week or two to make a move. The little lefty made his first appearance of the season on Saturday after starting the year on the DL. His solid 2010 season and place already on the 40-man roster helps his chances of getting called up sometime in June.
Ross Detwiler is another 40-man candidate who needs more time to make a case for the Majors this season. After a disappointing and injury-plagued 2010 season, Detwiler has stumbled out of the gate in 2011, with a 5.77 ERA. His performance is partly unlucky with a .400 BABIP and 63.3 LOB%, shown by his 3.43 FIP. Calling Detwiler up with the sole purpose of sticking him in the bullpen might be seen as a white flag by Rizzo, as trying to get anything useful out of the first draft pick in his tenure in the Nats' front office would be considered a last ditch effort at saving face. I have yet to give up on Detwiler's chances as a starting pitcher, however, and don't think this role would be good for him.
Tom Milone is a personal favorite, with solid performances in high A and AA ball over the past 2 seasons. Milone deserves a shot at the Majors, but I am not sure if this is the one that would be best for him; Milone is a starting pitcher and moving him to a LOOGY role could potentially mess with his development. He is definitely qualified, though, with 7.82 K/9 and 0.71 BB/9 against lefties this season in AAA.
Lee Hyde, a waiver claim from the Braves in March, has struggled with control so far this season (and in his entire career). With 7 BB/9 in AAA this season, Hyde is not going to sniff the Majors anytime soon. He could be useful down the road if the Nats' pitching coaches can fix his control issues, but they have not done so yet.
Cory VanAllen should get over the hump and make it to AAA this year, but I doubt that he will be in the Majors in 2011. His 5.59 BB/9 against lefties this year is discouraging, but his matching 5.59 H/9 and 13 K/9 are encouraging. 2011 is a make or break year for the 27 year old lefty, so he'll really need to improve his control to continue his development.
Chris Manno is the most intriguing player in the Nats' system if you ask me. With a 0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 1.93 BB/9 and 3.1 H/9, he is absolutely dominating high A ball. The 2010 draft pick (also a '09 pick) has been tagged as a soft-tosser with a bizarre delivery, but you can't argue with these results. He's not going to be the first call-up but who knows, maybe Manno gets a September call-up this year if he continues this torrid pace.

My vote: dump Slaten for a RHP and keep Burnett up.