Nationals Draft History: 2008-10

If you haven't already, check out my first post from this morning about the Nats' draft history from 2005-07. Here is the 2008-10 edition.

2008:

1st round pick: RHP Aaron Crow (9th overall, did not sign)

2nd round pick: OF Destin Hood (55th overall)

3rd round pick: MI Danny Espinosa (87th overall)

Other notable picks: LHP Graham Hicks (4th round), C Adrian Nieto (5th round), LHP Tom Milone (10th round), RHP Louis Coleman (14th round), OF J.P. Ramirez (15th round), 1B Tyler Moore (16th round), MI Steve Lombardozzi (19th round), LHP Bryan Harper (31st round), C Robert Brantly (46th round)

Still in the organization: Hood, Espinosa, Nieto, RHP Paul Demny (6th round), 1B J.R. Higley (9th round), Milone, Ramirez, Moore, MI Jose Lozada (17th round), LHP Bobby Hansen (18th round), Lombardozzi, OF Chris Curran (22nd round). 

Notes: 

-129 ML games played by Nats draft picks in '08, good for 3.4 WAR. 2 of those 3 players, however, declined to sign with the Nats and were redrafted (coincidentally by the Royals): 

-Crow and Coleman. Crow has been lights out in the bigs in 2011, despite very poor minor league numbers in 2010. 

-Hood has improved his batting approach tremendously in 2011, improving his BB rate and dropping his K rate. His isolated power has skyrocketed, his stolen base rate has gotten better and his BABIP does not suggest he's getting lucky. It's just high A ball, but I'm impressed so far.

-I've been a big fan of Espi since he was drafted. At the time, he was seen as an average player with no outstanding tools but a great work ethic. Now, he's got a nice combination of speed, power and patience to go with a plus arm and good glove.

-Hicks was another player dealt in the Gorzelanny trade. He has a 2.33 ERA in A ball this year, but with unimpressive peripherals.

-Nieto was a great value pick in the 5th round as a switch-hitting catcher with average or better skills both with the bat and the glove. Injuries and a PED suspension (noticing a pattern here?) have limited his playing time, but his offensive contributions have been pretty much limited to walks so far, with awful contact and power numbers.

-Milone is awesome, and will find his way to DC soon.

-Ramirez took 1 step forward with a solid 2010 campaign (.296/.341/.470) but 2 steps back so far in 2011 with a .216/.256/.351 triple slash.

-Moore finally signed in 2008 after being drafted by the Nats for the 3rd time.

-Lombardozzi will be in DC in not too long, just like Milone. It's always a good thing to have 3 decent young MI options like the Nats do.

-Curran was a friend of DC Sports Plus. Best wishes to him.

-The Nats drafted Bryce's brother Bryan in 2008. He'll be available in this year's draft, but lasted all the way until the 27th round last year anyways.

-Brantly did not sign with the Nats and was drafted in the 3rd round by the Tigers in 2010.

2009:

1st round picks: RHP Stephen Strasburg (1st overall) and RHP Drew Storen (10th overall)

2nd round pick: 2B Jeff Kobernus (50th overall)

3rd round pick: RHP Trevor Holder (81st overall)

Other notable picks: RHP A.J. Morris (4th round), RHP Dean Weaver (7th round), RHP Taylor Jordan (9th round), RHP Nathan Karns (12th round), RHP Patrick Lehman (13th round), LHP Danny Rosenbaum (22nd round), LHP Chris Manno (38th round in 2009, 26th round in 2010), 

Still in the organization: Strasburg, Storen, Kobernus, Holder, SS Michael Taylor (6th round), Weaver, MI Roberto Perez (8th round), Jordan, LHP Paul Applebee (10th round), CI/OF Justin Bloxom (11th round), Lehman, IF Sean Nicols (16th round), LHP Chad Jenkins (17th round), LHP Mitchell Clegg (21st round), Rosenbaum,  RHP Brandon King (27th round), RHP Matt Swynenberg (28th round), LHP Evan Bronson (29th round), RHP Rob Wort (30th round), RHP Kyle Morrison (32nd round), RHP Shane McCatty (34th round), Manno, 

Notes: 

-2009 Nats draftees have played 93 games with 2.3 WAR (1.3 for Strasburg and 1.0 for Storen).

-Kobernus has been a massive disappointment to date. I was a big believer in him, but his bat simply has not developed.

-Holder was a terrible pick. Having excellent control is great and all, but when you're getting bombed all day every day, not walking people just means all of the baserunners were the result of hits.

-Morris was seen as a good pick at the time, and was the final player dealt to the Cubs in the Gorzelanny trade. He hasn't pitched in 2011 due to injury, but at the moment he looks like the best out of the bunch that was moved.

-I still wonder why the Nats (or the Padres in 2010's 13th round for that matter) couldn't seal the deal on 5th round LHP Miguel Pena. 

-What happened to Nathan Karns? He was a last-minute, over slot pick who still hasn't pitched for the Nats.

-Lehman has 0 walks this season and over 5 K per every BB in his career.

-King still intrigues me despite his lack of experience and control.

-Shane McCatty is still the son of Steve McCatty.

-The 1-2 punch of Strasburg/Storen is awesome. Too bad the rest of the draft is mediocre.

2010:

1st round pick: OF Bryce Harper (1st overall)

2nd round pick: LHP Sammy Solis (51st overall)

3rd round pick: SS Rick Hague (83rd overall)

Other notable picks: RHP A.J. Cole (4th round), RHP Neil Holland (11th round), LHP Robbie Ray (12th round), LHP Chris Manno (26th round), 

Still in the organization: Harper, Solis, Hague, Cole, SS Jason Martinson (5th round), C Cole Leonida (6th round), OF Kevin Keyes (7th round), LHP Matt Grace (8th round), RHP Aaron Barrett (9th round), IF Blake Kelso (10th round), Holland, Ray, RHP Christopher McKenzie (13th round), C David Freitas (15th round), RHP Mark Herrera (16th round), RHP Tyler Hanks (17th round), 3B/OF Justin Miller (18th round), OF Wade Moore (19th round), OF Chad Mozingo (20th round), OF Connor Rowe (21st round), RHP Cameron Selik (22nd round), RHP Colin Bates (23rd round), 1B Russell Moldenhauer (24th round), LHP Christian Meza (25th round), Manno, OF Rick Hughes (29th round), C Jeremy Mayo (31st round), OF Randolph Oduber (32nd round), OF Wander Nunez (36th round), RHP Kevin Cahill (41st round), OF Rashad Hatcher (49th round).

Notes:

-No ML time yet by the 2010 draft class, which is not a surprise.

-Harper is obviously living up to expectations so far, hitting .338/.434/.610 with 13 HR and 12 SB in 55 games.

-For a pitcher labeled as close to ML ready, Solis has pitched very little so far (13 and 2/3 innings combined in 2010-11). Way too early to make judgments on him, though.

-Hague's bat has looked good so far (.319/.388/.493 total), but his fielding has been atrocious (.885 fielding percentage). Look for a position change in the near future.

-Cole's peripherals look great so far: 2.3 BB/9, 10.5 K/9 in 7 appearances.

-Martinson is walking and stealing bases, but has high K's, a low batting average and little power.

-Leonida's 2011 triple slash: .232/.358/.357. 2010? .146/.241/.184. Improvement is improvement, I guess.

-It's hard to be a stud power hitter when you don't make any contact. For this reason, Kevin Keyes better improve quickly.

-Kelso's .329/.389/.407 triple slash from 2010-11 looks nice.

-Holland has been awesome last year and this year: 1.88 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9 in 48 IP. Keep it going, Neil.

-Robbie Ray has been even better, with a 0.36 ERA, 4.0 H/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 25 IP. Beast mode!

-McKenzie has been the opposite: 9.31 ERA, 12.5 H/9, 6.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 48 and 1/3 innings. Ruh row.

-Tim Smalling (14th round) of Virginia Tech did not sign due to an injured labrum. We'll see if the Nationals take another run at him this year. 

-Freitas has 31 walks and 28 K's this season. His power has also improved. Could be a nice find in the 15th round.

-Where's Moldy? Russell Moldenhauer hit .268/.377/.500 in Vermont last year but has yet to appear in 2011.

-Manno is a monster. In 27 innings this season, he has allowed 9 hits and 1 earned run. He needs to work on his walks (3.3 BB/9 this season, 4.0 in his career), but with a career 14.6 K/9 to counter the walks, it's not as much of a concern.

-Mayo hit .284/.397/.477 last year. We'll see if he can repeat that success at Potomac this season.

-Nick Serino (37th round) and Tyler Oliver (35th round) have been released to my knowledge.

How the Nats beat good pitchers

While the Nats have struggled as a whole this season, they have defeated more than a few star pitchers, including Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Roy Oswalt, Madison Bumgarner and Tommy Hanson...and those are just the guys who got an actual "L." They haven't gotten cheated on the scoreboard either, scoring 43 runs in these 9 games (4.78 runs per game). Here's a look at how each pitcher was defeated.

April 2: Nats 6 Braves 3
Tommy Hanson did not even make it out of the 4th, as the Nationals brushed him up for 4 runs on 5 hits, with 2 walks and only 1 strikeout. Jayson Werth tagged him for two doubles and Rick Ankiel launched a 2 run homer in the 3rd to help push Hanson to the brink. John Lannan wasn't perfect, but only allowed 1 run on 5 hits through 5 innings. The recipe for success in this game was getting runs early, chasing the starting pitcher and responding every time the Braves scored.

April 17: Nats 8 Brewers 4
It took the Nats four innings to get warmed up, but they came back from a 2-0 deficit to score 7 runs on Yovani Gallardo in 5 and 1/3 innings. While 6 of the runs came on 3-run homers by Danny Espinosa and Pudge Rodriguez, the Nats' bats did not exactly get cheated, with 10 hits off of the big righty, forcing him to throw 107 pitches before being yanked. The Nats won this one by the long-ball, adding to the total with a solo homer by Ian Desmond in the 8th.

April 29: Nats 3 Giants 0
Thank Laynce Nix and Jason Marquis for beating Tim Linecum; Nix went 2/3 with a 2 run homer in the 2nd inning, which provided Marquis all the support he needed, as he went along to throw a 5 hit, 0 walk shutout. Marquis also contributed an RBI single that scored Desmond, who also deserves mention for going 3 for 3 off of the Freak. The Nats beat the Giants this time on one long-ball and solid pitching.

May 1: Nats 5 Giants 2
Jordan Zimmermann rebounded from Nate Schierholtz's 2 run double in the 2nd with 4 scoreless innings while receiving help from the rest of the team. Only Werth (3 for 4) and Adam LaRoche (0 for 2 with 2 BB's) started and failed to score or drive in a run, but neither had an awful day. This was a team win through and through, with contributions from the starting pitcher, the relievers, the starting lineup and the bench.

May 2: Nats 2 Giants 0
I'd feel bad for fans of the Giants, as their offense is horrendous, but they won the World Series last year...not happening. This time around, Tom Gorzelanny threw 8 innings and only gave up 3 hits while Jerry Hairston and Michael Morse each provided a 2 out RBI to beat young star Madison Bumgarner and give the Nats the Curly W.

May 10: Nats 7 Braves 6
The Nats won this game by capitalizing on mistakes, scoring 4 unearned runs (along with 3 earned runs) off of Tim Hudson. Werth and Nix both contributed 3-run homers and the Nats narrowly avoided having Marquis, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard blow a 7-1 lead in the 8th.

May 31: Nats 10 Phillies 2
There is nothing on Earth that brings me more joy than blowing out teams from Pennsylvania. Cliff Lee gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings, including two Espinosa homers. Morse went 3 for 5 with a double, two runs and two RBI while Marquis lasted through 6 and 1/3 innings, only allowing 2 runs and scoring one himself on the basepaths.

June 1: Nats 2 Phillies 1
Lannan and Roy Oswalt gave up a combined 3 runs, but neither made it past the 5th inning. Despite a million balls in play hit by the Phillies (only 2 K's by Nats pitchers) and limited offensive chances, the Nats pulled this one out due to Nix's homer and fantastic catch.

The Nats hit well in most of the games against these great pitchers, but another common denominator was their own great starting pitching. Wins against guys like Linecum and Lee are good confidence-boosters so it obviously bodes well for Washington to keep scoring Curly W's against elite competition.

The Near Future of the 2011 Nats Offense

We're through almost 30% of the season, and as a result are on the borderline of "small sample size" discussions.   It's still way too early to know if players who started hotter (Nix) or colder (LaRoche) than normal are sure bets to regress to the mean, but I've got to write my first post at the DC is for Baseball about something, so today we'll talk about the Nats' position players and the rest of the 2011 season.

Wilson Ramos is one of the few bright spots amongst Nationals position players this year, hitting .272/.347/.447 thus far. His original ZiPS projection for the season was to hit .267/.301/.403. MARCEL was a bit more favorable to Ramos, projecting a .273/.333/.429 triple slash. I don't expect Ramos to keep up his 9.6% walk rate (minor league high was 7.4% in high A in 2008, and rates were between 2.8 and 4.1% in 2009-10), but I also expect his 22% strikeout rate to dip back to around 16-17%. Ramos' BABIP at .325 is a little high for a slow catcher and his ISO at .180 is also a bit higher than projected, but neither differ enough from his career numbers to be considered true outliers. And by the way...did anybody notice Doug Glanville choosing him as his 2011 NL ROY?
Prognosis: slight regression. Ramos can keep up the batting average, but I expect to see a few less walks and a little less power for the rest of the year. I would be more than happy if he ended up with that MARCEL projection, and expect him to be somewhat in that range.

Pudge Rodriguez, on the other hand, is fading fast. His walk rate and ISO are higher than expected. His BABIP at .265 could see some improvement, but the most likely event will be his batting average rising a little while his OBP and SLG stay stagnant or decline. The Nats should given him to Boston when they had a chance, assuming Boston would have even taken him for free at this point.
Prognosis: about the same production, which isn't a good thing.

Adam LaRoche is injured. He's not a .172/.288/.258 hitter. He's not a guy with a .086 ISO. That being said, he might be a .172/.288/.258 hitter for the 2011 season if his second opinion shows significant shoulder damage. As a Nats fan, I hope for the best, but expect the worst. If LaRoche gets healthy and has significant playing time for the rest of the season, he'll probably end up around .230/.310/.440...not good by any means, but a major improvement over .172/.288/.258.
Prognosis: significant DL time, but significant improvement once healthy.

Michael Aubrey could be a nice in-house replacement for LaRoche if he goes on the DL as I expect. While Michael Morse would gobble up most of the playing time, Aubrey can hold his own in the Majors. He hit .289/.326/.500 in 95 PA for the Orioles in 2009 and has seen a major power surge from 2010 onwards. Aubrey could be up as soon as this week if the Nats cut Matt Stairs, and the former top prospect has the ability to provide good 1B defense to go with a solid LH bat off of the bench.
Prognosis: a batting line similar to Rick Ankiel's, but without as many K's.

Danny Espinosa has been both a pleasant surprise and a disappointment this year, despite his numbers looking a lot like their projections. Danny has been unlucky so far, with a .234 BABIP. If his luck starts evening out, he could end up around .230/.330/.430 or so, which would be a step in the right direction for the rookie. His power is for real, but the rest of his bat isn't quite there yet.
Prognosis: small improvement in BA, similar rate stats otherwise.

Ian Desmond is doing one thing right: stealing bases. His plate discipline has regressed, and his BABIP does not scream "unlucky," which scares me a little. Desmond may one day be a great shortstop, but has a lot of work to do before he's merely league average. He could start by taking some walks. This all being said, Desmond has nowhere to really go but up, and if he gets a confidence boost from a hot streak, he could end up beating his 2010 numbers across the board rather than simply the counting stats. Still waiting on that hot streak, though...
Prognosis: medium improvement in BA, OBP, SLG, but not resulting in an improvement over 2010 triple slash of .269/.308/.392.

Ryan Zimmerman cannot come back any sooner. Even if he hits .283/.333/.442 like he did in his last partial season, it would still be a major improvement over the likes of Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Alex Cora at 3B. At this point, Zimmerman should take his time and make sure he's fully healthy when he comes back so the Nats can have his full services for at least half of the season.
Prognosis: much better numbers than our 3B have hit in his absence.

Jerry Hairston, Jr. has done all that he can do in Zimmerman's absence, hitting vaguely around how we expected him to (.239/.310/.342 so far). His batting average is a little low, but he's both walking and striking out more than ever as well. I think he'll get a little better, but he still won't end up close to league average with the bat.
Prognosis: more hits, less walks and a little more power, which will result in a similar OBP and a nice .030-.040 bump in SLG.

Michael Morse...ugh. I expected regression from his 2010 numbers, but not a 3.8% BB rate and .093 ISO.  LaRoche's potential injury could free up some more regular playing time at 1B, but Morse will have to hit his way into the lineup when everyone gets healthy no matter how many or few chances he gets. I expect him to bounce back a little, but not all that much.
Prognosis: a 2 week HR binge, average rest of the season, and a .255/.315/.420 triple slash to end the season.

Laynce Nix's power is more or less for real. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .070 higher than his career average and his BB rate is still only 4%. I think Nix turns into the role the Nats expected Ankiel to fill, which is fine with me. I'll take a guy who can hit .270, play solid D and bomb the bleachers in a part-time role. But just like with Ankiel, a good team wouldn't count on Nix to play a significant starting role, let alone bat 3rd in the lineup.
Prognosis: significant regression in all offensive categories. Nix won't bottom out, though.

Rick Ankiel has looked both better and worse than expected. His K rate is only 16.3%, a full 10% improvement from his career average. Unfortunately, with that major improvement comes a major drop in power, as Ankiel only has a .067 ISO. He'll end up with plenty of K's and HR's, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll do so with another team.
Prognosis: More power but a lot more K's.


Jayson Werth isn't as disappointing as people think. His rate stats are just a little below his recent history, and his walk rate and ISO are still solid, so I don't see why he won't rebound to his 2008-09 numbers.
Pronosis: slight improvement across the board.


Roger Bernadina only has 15 games worth of at-bats this year, but I think his numbers so far look about what they should, at .259/.333/.352. I think he'll develop into a .265/.345/.400 player eventually, but for now, I'm happy with any starter having an OBP above .330 in this offense.

Matt Stairs should be cut immediately.