Monday, June 6, 2011

Nationals Draft History: 2005-07

I love the MLB Draft, so today is like Christmas to me. Later on, you'll get a nice post looking at the guys the Nats take in the first round tonight, but for now it's a partial history of Nationals' drafts since they moved to DC.

1st round pick: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (1st round, 4th overall)
2nd pick: OF Justin Maxwell (4th round, 114th overall)
3rd pick: OF Ryan DeLaughter (5th round, 144th overall)

Other notable picks: Marco Estrada (6th round), John Lannan (11th round), Craig Stammen (12th round), Tyler Moore (41st round in 2005, 33rd round in 2006 and 16th round in 2008).

Still in the organization: Zimmerman, Lannan, Stammen, Tim Pahuta (18th round), Moore.

-1073 ML games played by 2005 Nats draftees so far, with 23.1 WAR (led by Zimmerman's 17.9 and Lannan's 5.3).
-On paper, this draft was terrible in terms of players that made it to the Majors (5). In reality, it wasn't so bad; the Nationals did not have 2nd or 3rd round picks, got the 2nd best player in the draft in terms of WAR (Tulowitzki at 20.8 is the only one better than Zimmerman) and got value past the 10th round.
-The Nationals gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation for the signings of Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. Minnesota took LHP Brian Duensing with the 3rd round pick they received from the Nationals.
-Estrada was roughed up in Milwaukee last year but has rebounded nicely thus far in 2011.

1st round picks: 1B Chris Marrero (15th overall) and RHP Colton Willems (22nd overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Sean Black (59th overall, did not sign) and OF Stephen Englund (70th overall)
3rd round pick: IF Stephen King (91st overall)

Other notable picks: Glenn Gibson (4th round, 121st overall), Cole Kimball (12th round, 361st overall)

Still in the organization: Marrero, King, Cory VanAllen (5th round), Zech Zinicola (6th round) Sam Brown (7th round), Hassan Pena (13th round), Erik Arnesen (17th round), Adam Carr (18th round), Moore, Brad Peacock (41st round), Chad Jenkins (44th round in 2006 and 17th round in 2009).

-10 games played by 2006 draftees so far with 0.2 WAR (all Kimball). Yuck.
-The Nats got the extra 1st and 2nd due to Esteban Loaiza signing with Oakland and Hector Carrasco signing with the Angels...nice! Too bad both picks turned into guys who are already retired at age 22.
-This draft is proof that having 5 picks in the top 100 is not a sure thing: the only ML player out of the Nats' 2006 draft thus far is Cole Kimball, who has only thrown 11 and 1/3 innings with the big club. Willems retired. Black did not sign with the Nats and was drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round in 2009. Englund got suspended for PEDs, converted to a pitcher and retired. King got suspended for PEDs and is kicking around in Harrisburg still.
-Gibson was dealt for Elijah Dukes and came back for the 2010 season, but is now with Kansas City's organization.
-VanAllen and Zinicola were supposed to be in the bigs quickly as relievers, but both are in AA this season.
-Arnesen's "soft-tosser" label has forever restricted his career growth despite solid numbers. Carr might eventually get a shot, but his control is still poor.
-29th rounder Khristopher Davis was drafted by Milwaukee in the 7th round in 2009 and hit 22 HR with a .897 OPS last season in A ball.
-The Nats drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds in the 30th round.
-Sooner or later, the Nationals are going to let Brad Peacock fly because he is always in beast-mode.
-Jenkins has control problems in Harrisburg, but at least he's still pitching.

1st round picks: LHP Ross Detwiler (6th overall), LHP Josh Smoker (31st overall) and OF Michael Burgess (49th overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (67th overall) and 3B Jake Smolinski (70th overall)
3rd round pick: 3B Steven Souza (100th overall)

Other notable picks: C Derek Norris (4th round), RHP Brad Meyers (5th round), LHP Jack McGeary (6th round)

Still in the organization: Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann, Norris, Meyers, McGeary, Patrick McCoy (10th round), Bill Rhinehart (11th round), Jeff Mandel (17th round)

-59 games played by 2007 draftees thus far, with 0.5 total WAR (0.9 by Zimmermann and -0.4 by Detwiler).
-The Nats got the Smoker and Zimmermann picks as compensation for Alfonso Soriano and the Burgess pick as compensation for Jose Guillen.
-The jury is still out on Detwiler and McGeary, amongst others. These two still have the ability to be solid ML pitchers, but Detwiler needs to be more consistent and McGeary has to prove in 2011 that his arm troubles are behind him.
-Burgess is hitting .198 so far in high A ball for the Cubs following the Tom Gorzelanny trade this offseason.
-Smoker's numbers have been ugly since being drafted, but could reboot his career with better control according to John Sickels (via NationalsProspects).
-Souza looked like a bust through 2009, but his '10 and '11 seasons have shown some promise. He was suspended for PEDs last year, though, so that may have had something to do with the better numbers.
-Norris was a steal.
-Brad Meyers will be a National by the end of the season.
-Smolinski was one of the prospects dealt to Florida in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham deal. His minor league numbers are solid, but he doesn't do anything outstanding that really makes us miss him.
-Overall, a decent draft so far with a few players still around to improve the ranking.

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