If I were the GM: September Moves

September 1 is right around the corner, coming at you this Thursday. It's one of the most exciting days for prospect freaks like myself (along with the last week of Spring Training, the date of the MLB draft, the signing deadline and the date of the Rule 5 draft. It's going to be nice to see the fruits ripening from our suddenly deep farm system.

The Nats have a lot of decisions to be made, and most likely, I am going to end up disappointed. No team carries a full 40-man roster during September call-ups, so perhaps what I'm thinking is a bit unrealistic. Still, in the best interest of the future of the franchise, here's what I would do with the Nats on September 1:

CLEARING ROSTER SPACE
The Nats have a full 40-man roster right now...sort of. The Nats currently have four players on the 15-day DL who can be moved over to the 60-day DL: Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus (if they shut him down, which I think they will), Doug Slaten and Adam LaRoche. Slaten is on the rehabilitation track, but was nothing special when healthy, so I would outright him to AAA or release him. In addition, Adam Carr is out for the season and can be put on the 60-day DL as well.

I would DFA Garrett Mock, Craig Stammen and Alex Cora to create an extra 3 spots, giving the Nats 8 total. Mock's time has been up for quite a while and Stammen struggled in AAA this year. While I'm not opposed to keeping a veteran infielder around, Cora is a leech on the lineup, hitting .218/.282/.254 this season; under my plan, the Nats will have 2 extra middle infielders up that need lots of playing time.

There a a few other players that I could see the Nats DFAing (Maya, Severino and Brown), but all three have enough upside (or in Maya's case, the Nats have invested enough in him) that they'll almost certainly stick around at least until Spring Training next year.

GUARANTEED ADDITIONS TO THE 40-MAN
These guys are almost certain to be called up:
2B Stephen Lombardozzi: Everybody loves a switch-hitting second baseman who can hit for average and get on base. Lombo plays solid defense and has seen his power numbers rise throughout his time in the minors.

LHSP Tom Milone: 2.91 ERA in high A ball in 2009. 2.85 ERA in AA in 2010. 3.33 ERA in AAA in 2011. With solid performance, great control and an other-worldly 10.64 strikeouts per walk rate in AAA this year, Milone is certainly getting a chance this year. Milone is still 15 innings pitched shy of his 2010 finals as well, so he could conceivably throw another 30 innings at least.

C Derek Norris: Norris' prospect status has faded a bit due to a drop in batting average and power in 2010 and average again in 2011, but he's still a shiny prospect at a vital position to have depth at. His .203/.353/.429 bat won't get a lot of opportunities in September, but he'll be up to learn from Pudge, Ramos, Flores and the gang. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get some innings at 1B.

RHSP Brad Peacock: Peacock has been awesome in 2011, going 14-3 with a 2.48 ERA in 141 and 2/3 innings. His walks have risen and strikeouts have fallen significantly in AAA compared to his AA stats, but he's still having a fantastic season. Peacock is basically at his 2010 workload, so he will probably not pitch a whole lot in September.

All four of these players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December, so they need to be September call-ups or added to the 40-man roster after the season to be protected.

MY 40-MAN ADDITIONS
2B Matt Antonelli: Am I the only one that is impressed with the fact that this guy went basically two years between competitive games and came back to hit .294/.383/.443 in AAA? The 2006 Padres first rounder is still only 26 and can attribute his minor league struggles to injuries rather than poor performance. I'm convinced that this is the real Matt Antonelli, not the one that was rushed to the Majors in 2008 only to hit .193/.292/.281. If Lombardozzi wasn't in the system, Antonelli would be a slam dunk call-up, but since there are at-bats to share, I guess we'll just have to see about Antonelli.

OF Erik Komatsu: This wouldn't be completely merit-based, as Komatsu has only hit .242/.296/.303 for the Nats in AA this year (after hitting .294/.393/.416 for the Brewers' AA affiliate, though). Rather, this would be a show-me situation; Komatsu is Rule 5 eligible after the season and could help the Nats as soon as next season as a 4th OF/defensive replacement type. By getting him some ML reps now, the Nats could make the decision of whether to go with Komatsu (or a guy like Corey Brown) next year or to continue to rely on veteran 4th OF types like Nix, Ankiel and Gomes.

RHP Rafael Martin: Dubbed "close to the big leagues" by Stan Kasten when he was signed out of Mexico in February of 2010, Martin turned a corner in 2011 after a mixed bag of results last season. In 40 and 2/3 innings, Martin has a 1.55 ERA and 12 saves to go along with his 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. A lot of people have forgotten about Martin, but he legitimately deserves a shot, and at 27 years old, will likely get one soon.

LHP Oliver Perez: Okay, the former Padre/Pirate/Met isn't the same pitcher who struck out 239 batters in 2004 as a 22-year-old or the one that threw 371 innings of 3.91 ERA ball for the Mets in 2007-08, but he did improve himself in 2011. Ollie went 3-4 in Harrisburg with a 3.04 ERA in 68 innings, but I'm pretty impressed with his 2.9 BB/9; it's far from incredible by anyone's standards, but it was his second lowest walk  rate at any level in his entire professional career (after 2.3 K/9 in 47 and 2/3 innings of AAA ball in 2003). If the Nats don't call up Perez now, he's likely gone after the season, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll see if the 30 year old who got paid $12 million this year by the Mets to pitch for another team has anything left in the tank.

OTHERS OF NOTE
RHSP Erik Arnesen: Good control, overall performance in 2011. At 27, his window is closing.

1B/OF Michael Aubrey: Former top Indians prospect hit .273/.363/.471 in Syracuse this year. He's not a big power guy (despite having a 4 homer game, he hit only 11 total in 82 games), but walked more than he struck out this season and plays solid defense at 1B.

OF Gregor Blanco: Awful 2011 season will prevent him from getting a call-up, but he is a great base-stealer (24/26 this season) with .358 career OBP in the majors in 836 PA and solid defense. He's similar to Nyjer Morgan (with less power, better baserunning skills, less ego) and is still just 27.

OF Archie Gilbert: He is a 27 year old playing in AA for the third straight year, so I'm not expecting a callup. Still, Archie has good plate discipline (29 BB/35 K) and great speed (31/35 SB) and can play CF. His prospect window may have closed, but he could make it as a righthanded Nyjer-type (sorry to keep bringing that name up).

IF Tug Hulett: Another ML retread, Hulett is hitting .273/.343/.414 this season in AAA. While he's not a speed demon, power hitter or defensive whiz, he does everything just well enough to keep getting shots, and could help out the Nats if they needed a 2B/3B in a pinch. Unfortunately for Tug, the Nats have a ton of young talent blocking him, so he likely won't get the call.

RHRP Jeff Mandel: His 3.39 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 are all improvements over his career averages. His track record isn't that great (although he had a nice 2009 season in Potomac and Harrisburg), but could get a look at some point soon.

RHSP Shairon Martis: Remember me? We were all reminded of the guy who started out 5-0 for us in 2009 this week when he tossed a no-no in AA ball, but he really deserves another look. Martis' control has improved this season (2.7 BB/9, down from 3.0 career) while vastly improving his strikeout numbers (10.1 K/9 is almost 3 K above his career average and way better than he had done at any higher level in his career). Sure, it's AA, but it looks like Martis has legitimately changed himself as a pitcher.

RHSP Brad Meyers: After dominating AA to start the 2011 season (2.48 ERA, 0 BB/38 K in 36 and 1/3 innings pitched) Meyers has cooled off a little in AAA (3.57 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 in 85 and 2/3 innings). Ultimately, he doesn't have the stuff of Peacock or the numbers of Milone, so he's my odd man out, but I bet he'll be added to the 40-man in the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

1B Tyler Moore: I'm admittedly not a fan of Moore at all due to his horrendous plate discipline (24 BB and 132 K this season), but you can't argue with back-to-back 30-HR seasons. He's done both while playing at an older age for his level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nats challenge him either here or in the Arizona Fall League before they have to decide on whether or not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

LHSP Danny Rosenbaum: Think Tom Milone, just a level lower. Rosenbaum has a 2.28 career ERA across all levels, but I'd like to see some improvement in his BB and K rates (2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 over his career, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this season) before he gets a shot. He's still only 23 and will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, so no rush on Danny boy.

C Jhonatan Solano: More of a contender for an ML role than I figured he would be at the beginning of the season, but with Ramos and Flores already up, Norris likely getting a shot and Pudge returning from the DL, Solano will likely have to do with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training next season.

RHRP Josh Wilkie: He should have gotten a shot in 2009 or 2010, but it's better late than never for the 27 year old Syracuse closer. While his 2011 stats aren't as great as his career numbers, a 3.10 ERA, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 isn't bad by any means.

LHRP Cory VanAllen: I wrote him off halfway through 2010 when he was back in Potomac with a 4.14 ERA as a 25 year old reliever, but he had a career resurgence this season, his second year in the pen. VanAllen threw 54 and 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball, allowing 3.6 BB/9 but striking out 11.2 batters per 9. He's a nice LOOGY candidate and honestly can't be any worse than Burnett or Slaten right now.

RHRP Zech Zinicola: Another 2006 college pitcher who was thought to be a quick-mover, Zinicola has finally figured out the upper levels, throwing 37 innings of 1.95 ERA ball with 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9. Seeing guys like he and VanAllen have career resurgences is great, and they will likely get the chance to battle it out in Spring Training next year.


Here are some other resources if you want to think of your own September call-ups: Nationals Prospects (check the comments for Rule 5 eligibles) and Federal Baseball.

Nationals Draft History: 2005-07

I love the MLB Draft, so today is like Christmas to me. Later on, you'll get a nice post looking at the guys the Nats take in the first round tonight, but for now it's a partial history of Nationals' drafts since they moved to DC.

2005:
1st round pick: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (1st round, 4th overall)
2nd pick: OF Justin Maxwell (4th round, 114th overall)
3rd pick: OF Ryan DeLaughter (5th round, 144th overall)

Other notable picks: Marco Estrada (6th round), John Lannan (11th round), Craig Stammen (12th round), Tyler Moore (41st round in 2005, 33rd round in 2006 and 16th round in 2008).

Still in the organization: Zimmerman, Lannan, Stammen, Tim Pahuta (18th round), Moore.

Notes:
-1073 ML games played by 2005 Nats draftees so far, with 23.1 WAR (led by Zimmerman's 17.9 and Lannan's 5.3).
-On paper, this draft was terrible in terms of players that made it to the Majors (5). In reality, it wasn't so bad; the Nationals did not have 2nd or 3rd round picks, got the 2nd best player in the draft in terms of WAR (Tulowitzki at 20.8 is the only one better than Zimmerman) and got value past the 10th round.
-The Nationals gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation for the signings of Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. Minnesota took LHP Brian Duensing with the 3rd round pick they received from the Nationals.
-Estrada was roughed up in Milwaukee last year but has rebounded nicely thus far in 2011.


2006:
1st round picks: 1B Chris Marrero (15th overall) and RHP Colton Willems (22nd overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Sean Black (59th overall, did not sign) and OF Stephen Englund (70th overall)
3rd round pick: IF Stephen King (91st overall)

Other notable picks: Glenn Gibson (4th round, 121st overall), Cole Kimball (12th round, 361st overall)

Still in the organization: Marrero, King, Cory VanAllen (5th round), Zech Zinicola (6th round) Sam Brown (7th round), Hassan Pena (13th round), Erik Arnesen (17th round), Adam Carr (18th round), Moore, Brad Peacock (41st round), Chad Jenkins (44th round in 2006 and 17th round in 2009).

Notes:
-10 games played by 2006 draftees so far with 0.2 WAR (all Kimball). Yuck.
-The Nats got the extra 1st and 2nd due to Esteban Loaiza signing with Oakland and Hector Carrasco signing with the Angels...nice! Too bad both picks turned into guys who are already retired at age 22.
-This draft is proof that having 5 picks in the top 100 is not a sure thing: the only ML player out of the Nats' 2006 draft thus far is Cole Kimball, who has only thrown 11 and 1/3 innings with the big club. Willems retired. Black did not sign with the Nats and was drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round in 2009. Englund got suspended for PEDs, converted to a pitcher and retired. King got suspended for PEDs and is kicking around in Harrisburg still.
-Gibson was dealt for Elijah Dukes and came back for the 2010 season, but is now with Kansas City's organization.
-VanAllen and Zinicola were supposed to be in the bigs quickly as relievers, but both are in AA this season.
-Arnesen's "soft-tosser" label has forever restricted his career growth despite solid numbers. Carr might eventually get a shot, but his control is still poor.
-29th rounder Khristopher Davis was drafted by Milwaukee in the 7th round in 2009 and hit 22 HR with a .897 OPS last season in A ball.
-The Nats drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds in the 30th round.
-Sooner or later, the Nationals are going to let Brad Peacock fly because he is always in beast-mode.
-Jenkins has control problems in Harrisburg, but at least he's still pitching.


2007:
1st round picks: LHP Ross Detwiler (6th overall), LHP Josh Smoker (31st overall) and OF Michael Burgess (49th overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (67th overall) and 3B Jake Smolinski (70th overall)
3rd round pick: 3B Steven Souza (100th overall)

Other notable picks: C Derek Norris (4th round), RHP Brad Meyers (5th round), LHP Jack McGeary (6th round)

Still in the organization: Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann, Norris, Meyers, McGeary, Patrick McCoy (10th round), Bill Rhinehart (11th round), Jeff Mandel (17th round)

Notes:
-59 games played by 2007 draftees thus far, with 0.5 total WAR (0.9 by Zimmermann and -0.4 by Detwiler).
-The Nats got the Smoker and Zimmermann picks as compensation for Alfonso Soriano and the Burgess pick as compensation for Jose Guillen.
-The jury is still out on Detwiler and McGeary, amongst others. These two still have the ability to be solid ML pitchers, but Detwiler needs to be more consistent and McGeary has to prove in 2011 that his arm troubles are behind him.
-Burgess is hitting .198 so far in high A ball for the Cubs following the Tom Gorzelanny trade this offseason.
-Smoker's numbers have been ugly since being drafted, but could reboot his career with better control according to John Sickels (via NationalsProspects).
-Souza looked like a bust through 2009, but his '10 and '11 seasons have shown some promise. He was suspended for PEDs last year, though, so that may have had something to do with the better numbers.
-Norris was a steal.
-Brad Meyers will be a National by the end of the season.
-Smolinski was one of the prospects dealt to Florida in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham deal. His minor league numbers are solid, but he doesn't do anything outstanding that really makes us miss him.
-Overall, a decent draft so far with a few players still around to improve the ranking.