If I were the GM: September Moves

September 1 is right around the corner, coming at you this Thursday. It's one of the most exciting days for prospect freaks like myself (along with the last week of Spring Training, the date of the MLB draft, the signing deadline and the date of the Rule 5 draft. It's going to be nice to see the fruits ripening from our suddenly deep farm system.

The Nats have a lot of decisions to be made, and most likely, I am going to end up disappointed. No team carries a full 40-man roster during September call-ups, so perhaps what I'm thinking is a bit unrealistic. Still, in the best interest of the future of the franchise, here's what I would do with the Nats on September 1:

CLEARING ROSTER SPACE
The Nats have a full 40-man roster right now...sort of. The Nats currently have four players on the 15-day DL who can be moved over to the 60-day DL: Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus (if they shut him down, which I think they will), Doug Slaten and Adam LaRoche. Slaten is on the rehabilitation track, but was nothing special when healthy, so I would outright him to AAA or release him. In addition, Adam Carr is out for the season and can be put on the 60-day DL as well.

I would DFA Garrett Mock, Craig Stammen and Alex Cora to create an extra 3 spots, giving the Nats 8 total. Mock's time has been up for quite a while and Stammen struggled in AAA this year. While I'm not opposed to keeping a veteran infielder around, Cora is a leech on the lineup, hitting .218/.282/.254 this season; under my plan, the Nats will have 2 extra middle infielders up that need lots of playing time.

There a a few other players that I could see the Nats DFAing (Maya, Severino and Brown), but all three have enough upside (or in Maya's case, the Nats have invested enough in him) that they'll almost certainly stick around at least until Spring Training next year.

GUARANTEED ADDITIONS TO THE 40-MAN
These guys are almost certain to be called up:
2B Stephen Lombardozzi: Everybody loves a switch-hitting second baseman who can hit for average and get on base. Lombo plays solid defense and has seen his power numbers rise throughout his time in the minors.

LHSP Tom Milone: 2.91 ERA in high A ball in 2009. 2.85 ERA in AA in 2010. 3.33 ERA in AAA in 2011. With solid performance, great control and an other-worldly 10.64 strikeouts per walk rate in AAA this year, Milone is certainly getting a chance this year. Milone is still 15 innings pitched shy of his 2010 finals as well, so he could conceivably throw another 30 innings at least.

C Derek Norris: Norris' prospect status has faded a bit due to a drop in batting average and power in 2010 and average again in 2011, but he's still a shiny prospect at a vital position to have depth at. His .203/.353/.429 bat won't get a lot of opportunities in September, but he'll be up to learn from Pudge, Ramos, Flores and the gang. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get some innings at 1B.

RHSP Brad Peacock: Peacock has been awesome in 2011, going 14-3 with a 2.48 ERA in 141 and 2/3 innings. His walks have risen and strikeouts have fallen significantly in AAA compared to his AA stats, but he's still having a fantastic season. Peacock is basically at his 2010 workload, so he will probably not pitch a whole lot in September.

All four of these players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December, so they need to be September call-ups or added to the 40-man roster after the season to be protected.

MY 40-MAN ADDITIONS
2B Matt Antonelli: Am I the only one that is impressed with the fact that this guy went basically two years between competitive games and came back to hit .294/.383/.443 in AAA? The 2006 Padres first rounder is still only 26 and can attribute his minor league struggles to injuries rather than poor performance. I'm convinced that this is the real Matt Antonelli, not the one that was rushed to the Majors in 2008 only to hit .193/.292/.281. If Lombardozzi wasn't in the system, Antonelli would be a slam dunk call-up, but since there are at-bats to share, I guess we'll just have to see about Antonelli.

OF Erik Komatsu: This wouldn't be completely merit-based, as Komatsu has only hit .242/.296/.303 for the Nats in AA this year (after hitting .294/.393/.416 for the Brewers' AA affiliate, though). Rather, this would be a show-me situation; Komatsu is Rule 5 eligible after the season and could help the Nats as soon as next season as a 4th OF/defensive replacement type. By getting him some ML reps now, the Nats could make the decision of whether to go with Komatsu (or a guy like Corey Brown) next year or to continue to rely on veteran 4th OF types like Nix, Ankiel and Gomes.

RHP Rafael Martin: Dubbed "close to the big leagues" by Stan Kasten when he was signed out of Mexico in February of 2010, Martin turned a corner in 2011 after a mixed bag of results last season. In 40 and 2/3 innings, Martin has a 1.55 ERA and 12 saves to go along with his 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. A lot of people have forgotten about Martin, but he legitimately deserves a shot, and at 27 years old, will likely get one soon.

LHP Oliver Perez: Okay, the former Padre/Pirate/Met isn't the same pitcher who struck out 239 batters in 2004 as a 22-year-old or the one that threw 371 innings of 3.91 ERA ball for the Mets in 2007-08, but he did improve himself in 2011. Ollie went 3-4 in Harrisburg with a 3.04 ERA in 68 innings, but I'm pretty impressed with his 2.9 BB/9; it's far from incredible by anyone's standards, but it was his second lowest walk  rate at any level in his entire professional career (after 2.3 K/9 in 47 and 2/3 innings of AAA ball in 2003). If the Nats don't call up Perez now, he's likely gone after the season, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll see if the 30 year old who got paid $12 million this year by the Mets to pitch for another team has anything left in the tank.

OTHERS OF NOTE
RHSP Erik Arnesen: Good control, overall performance in 2011. At 27, his window is closing.

1B/OF Michael Aubrey: Former top Indians prospect hit .273/.363/.471 in Syracuse this year. He's not a big power guy (despite having a 4 homer game, he hit only 11 total in 82 games), but walked more than he struck out this season and plays solid defense at 1B.

OF Gregor Blanco: Awful 2011 season will prevent him from getting a call-up, but he is a great base-stealer (24/26 this season) with .358 career OBP in the majors in 836 PA and solid defense. He's similar to Nyjer Morgan (with less power, better baserunning skills, less ego) and is still just 27.

OF Archie Gilbert: He is a 27 year old playing in AA for the third straight year, so I'm not expecting a callup. Still, Archie has good plate discipline (29 BB/35 K) and great speed (31/35 SB) and can play CF. His prospect window may have closed, but he could make it as a righthanded Nyjer-type (sorry to keep bringing that name up).

IF Tug Hulett: Another ML retread, Hulett is hitting .273/.343/.414 this season in AAA. While he's not a speed demon, power hitter or defensive whiz, he does everything just well enough to keep getting shots, and could help out the Nats if they needed a 2B/3B in a pinch. Unfortunately for Tug, the Nats have a ton of young talent blocking him, so he likely won't get the call.

RHRP Jeff Mandel: His 3.39 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 are all improvements over his career averages. His track record isn't that great (although he had a nice 2009 season in Potomac and Harrisburg), but could get a look at some point soon.

RHSP Shairon Martis: Remember me? We were all reminded of the guy who started out 5-0 for us in 2009 this week when he tossed a no-no in AA ball, but he really deserves another look. Martis' control has improved this season (2.7 BB/9, down from 3.0 career) while vastly improving his strikeout numbers (10.1 K/9 is almost 3 K above his career average and way better than he had done at any higher level in his career). Sure, it's AA, but it looks like Martis has legitimately changed himself as a pitcher.

RHSP Brad Meyers: After dominating AA to start the 2011 season (2.48 ERA, 0 BB/38 K in 36 and 1/3 innings pitched) Meyers has cooled off a little in AAA (3.57 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 in 85 and 2/3 innings). Ultimately, he doesn't have the stuff of Peacock or the numbers of Milone, so he's my odd man out, but I bet he'll be added to the 40-man in the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

1B Tyler Moore: I'm admittedly not a fan of Moore at all due to his horrendous plate discipline (24 BB and 132 K this season), but you can't argue with back-to-back 30-HR seasons. He's done both while playing at an older age for his level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nats challenge him either here or in the Arizona Fall League before they have to decide on whether or not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

LHSP Danny Rosenbaum: Think Tom Milone, just a level lower. Rosenbaum has a 2.28 career ERA across all levels, but I'd like to see some improvement in his BB and K rates (2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 over his career, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this season) before he gets a shot. He's still only 23 and will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, so no rush on Danny boy.

C Jhonatan Solano: More of a contender for an ML role than I figured he would be at the beginning of the season, but with Ramos and Flores already up, Norris likely getting a shot and Pudge returning from the DL, Solano will likely have to do with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training next season.

RHRP Josh Wilkie: He should have gotten a shot in 2009 or 2010, but it's better late than never for the 27 year old Syracuse closer. While his 2011 stats aren't as great as his career numbers, a 3.10 ERA, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 isn't bad by any means.

LHRP Cory VanAllen: I wrote him off halfway through 2010 when he was back in Potomac with a 4.14 ERA as a 25 year old reliever, but he had a career resurgence this season, his second year in the pen. VanAllen threw 54 and 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball, allowing 3.6 BB/9 but striking out 11.2 batters per 9. He's a nice LOOGY candidate and honestly can't be any worse than Burnett or Slaten right now.

RHRP Zech Zinicola: Another 2006 college pitcher who was thought to be a quick-mover, Zinicola has finally figured out the upper levels, throwing 37 innings of 1.95 ERA ball with 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9. Seeing guys like he and VanAllen have career resurgences is great, and they will likely get the chance to battle it out in Spring Training next year.


Here are some other resources if you want to think of your own September call-ups: Nationals Prospects (check the comments for Rule 5 eligibles) and Federal Baseball.

Syracuse options

The Nats are playing great baseball, with 5 straight wins and a +1 run differential on the season. That doesn't mean the team cannot be improved, though. Here are a few players currently playing in AAA Syracuse that could give the Nats a hand:

Hitters
IF Matt Antonelli is tops on my list for a callup. He's better than Bixler and is the only infielder in the Majors or AAA other than Desmond or Espinosa that has a future with the team. If you haven't already, read my interview with Antonelli here.

1B Michael Aubrey has struggled over his last few weeks, hitting .167/.323/.333 in his last 10 games. Still, he's an OBP machine with a little pop and a nice glove. Adam LaRoche's season-ending injury makes me want to call up Aubrey even more, as he's a left handed hitter who can serve as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement for Morse late in games (something Stairs is incapable of).

1B Chris Marrero is in the right place at the wrong time. His AAA numbers are solid (.290/.351/.450), but Morse's hot streak and RH bat make it so calling up Marrero and sitting him on the bench would be a detriment to the 22 year old's development. We'll see him in September I'm sure.

Pitchers
LHP Tom Milone has allowed more HR (5) than BB (4). And 5 HR ain't a whole lot to allow in 70 and 1/3 innings, anyways. With a 19:1 K:BB ratio and a respectable 3.58, we will probably see Milone in DC sometime this season, albeit the role may come as a reliever.

RHP Josh Wilkie probably should have gotten the call in 2009 and 10, but I'll still hold out hope that 2011 will be the year he gets his shot. While peripheral stats aren't as good as they were in 2009 and 10, the fact that he's put up consistently solid ones in three straight years at AAA make him a viable option.

RHP Brad Meyers has less BB (3) than Milone in more innings (76 and 1/3) across two levels. He's been prone to the long-ball in Syracuse (5 HR allowed in 7 starts), but has put up solid stats otherwise. Meyers has spent a considerably smaller amount of time in Syracuse so he's on the bottom of the totem pole. Still, a 24.33 K:BB ratio throughout his minor league appearances this year is awesome.

Interview with Syracuse 2B Matt Antonelli

A lot of players would have given up after missing almost two full seasons of their career due to injury, but not Matt Antonelli. The former 1st round pick and top 50 prospect stuck it out through injuries, rehab and being non-tendered by the only team he had ever played for, the Padres. Now, he's killing the ball in AAA Syracuse, hitting .364/.430/.545 in 21 games. Matt is an avid blogger and one of the most approachable players in the game and was kind enough to answer some questions for me pertaining to both him and the draft. Thanks again, Matt!

1) As a former 1st round pick, what advice do you have for Anthony Rendon, Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin, the Nats' three 1st rounders this season?
Well I wouldn't do anything different just because you are a high round pick. The way I looked at it when I got drafted was that every player in the organization is now in the same boat, and the guys that will ultimately make it to the Major Leagues will be the best players and the guys that can help the big league team win ball games. No matter where you are picked there is still a long way to go before you reach your ultimate goal, so you have to continue to work hard each and every day.

2) What do you attribute your early success to in 2011? Does it have anything to do with finally being healthy after being plagued with injuries over the past few years?
Well, it has a little bit to do with being healthy and a little bit to do with me really working on my swing over the past few years. I would attribute more of the success to my swing and not my health, but it was tough at times to hit with some of the pain I was experiencing in my hand. Basically I had gotten into some really bad habits in 2008 and the little bit of 2009 that I was able to play in. After the 2009 season I worked really hard with a hitting coach that got me out of those bad habits and helped me regain what I was doing earlier in my career. So far I've been able to repeat a lot of those things and hopefully will be able to continue to do so.

3) While you're not known for your power, you did hit 21 HR in in the minors in 2007. Should we expect similar power in the future, or was that outburst more of an outlier?
Yeah, I've never been a big power hitter. I'm more of a line drive hitter who usually has a good amount of doubles. I'm just looking to get a good pitch and put a good swing on it. If the ball happens to go out of the ballpark then that is just a bonus.

4) How would you describe your future with the Nationals? Did they tell you "you need to hit ________ to get called up" or anything like that?
I get asked this question probably about ten times a day from people. The truth is whether it is moving up or down from Single-A, Double-A, Triple-A, or the Major Leagues you really have no idea why, when, or how it will happen. Our job as players is just to go out and play as well as we can. That is really the only thing we can control so that is the only thing we worry about.


5) What does a typical day look like for you, from waking up to going to sleep after a 7 pm game?
When we are home in Syracuse my typical day will be to wake up around 10 AM and eat breakfast. I will relax around my apartment for a few hours, watching TV, writing on my blog, maybe reading a book. At around 2 PM I will pick up lunch and head to the field to eat. At about 3 PM is when my actual baseball day will start. I will stretch out and hit in the batting cage around then. At 4 PM I will go out on my field for an hour or so of batting practice. From about 5:15 PM until about 6 PM I like to eat a snack and relax in the clubhouse. At 6 PM I will start getting ready for that night's game. I'll jump in the hot tub to loosen up, take a shower, then start to stretch out. At 6:40 PM I will head out to the field to loosen up again for the game which starts at 7 PM. Usually the game ends around 10 PM when I will shower up and either eat dinner at the field or head out to eat. I usually get back to my apartment around 11:30 PM or so. By this time I'm pretty tired so I'll get on my sofa with my computer until around 12:30 or 1 and then start to fall asleep before I wake up the next day and do it all over again.

6) As a supplement to that, what do you and your teammates do to hang out and stuff?
Well, I hang out with my teammates a lot more on the road than I do at home. When I'm on the road we will eat together a lot. I love movies so a group of us will usually try to catch a flick after a Sunday day game. Other than that we do pretty much the same stuff that everyone else does when they hang out with friends. We are at the field for the majority of the day so most of the time we spend with each other is there.

7) A lot of people who follow the Nationals are wondering if 2B could be a long-term fit for 1st round pick Anthony Rendon. How difficult was the transition from 3B to 2B for you?
Well, I went to Wake Forest to play middle infield but had to move to 3rd because we didn't have anyone to play over there. I think the transition was easier for me because I grew up playing SS throughout most of my life. I guess it all depends on the player, how athletic they are, how big or small they are, and what positions they have played in the past. I've seen some guys that can play anywhere on the diamond and I've seen some guys that can't. It all really depends. I think a lot of people believe that baseball players can play any position on the field, but when it comes to playing a position in the Major Leagues that really isn't the case.


8) How does it feel to see Nationals infielders struggle in the big leagues when you think that you can do better yourself?
I actually don't worry too much about how the guys ahead of me or behind me are doing. I really can't control how anyone else plays but myself, so I try to worry about that and that's it. If I play well and handle my business then everything will work out in the end.

9) To this point, what is your proudest accomplishment in your baseball career?
I guess I would have to say making my Major League debut. That is something I had wanted to do since I was young, and when I got drafted in 2006 that was obviously my goal. Now I want to get back to the Major Leagues and have a successful career. That is my main goal right now and what keeps me working hard everyday.

10) What is your favorite road city to play in, and why?
Well I loved San Diego. I think that is one of the best cities in the country for sure. I also really enjoyed playing in DC when I was with the Padres. When it comes to Major League cities there really isn't much to complain about. This is my basically my fourth full season in the minor leagues and you end up playing in a lot of interesting places. Playing long enough in the minors will make you really appreciate any city in the MLB. Thanks for the questions and thanks for reading!

LVH's: Least Valuable Hitters

Matt Stairs
This should not be a surprise to anyone. Stairs is 3 for 34 on the year, with a .088/.244/.118 triple slash. He's got more walks (7) than total bases (4), and has been worth 0.4 wins below replacement. Stairs Stairs is 43 years old, has little upside and no defensive value. Stairs is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10% more than his career average, while only swinging at 49% of pitches inside the strike zone, almost 18% lower than his career average.

The argument that there is no viable replacement for Stairs is not valid, either, because the Nats have a 1B in AAA that deserves a shot at ML pitching: Michael Aubrey. Aubrey has limited ML experience, but is a good fielding lefty bat that can spot start and pinch hit against RHP. Aubrey's .283/.336/.487 career triple slash against RHP in the bigs would be a major improvement over Stairs, and his plate discipline is better than ever in AAA (17 BB/15 K in 34 games). If the Nats cut Stairs loose and called up Aubrey, the worst that can happen is no worse than what is happening now, so they should go ahead and do it. And for the record, I am against Chris Marrero being called up because he won't play every day.

Brian Bixler's 2011 numbers are Matt Stairs-ian: 3 for 21 with a .143/.217/.143 triple slash. If he sticks with the big club any longer, it's for 2 reasons: he's already here, and there ain't anybody pushing him. The Nats have some intriguing options, but they're all either too young or not a clear improvement over Bixler.

Replacements for even utility players that can't hit are sometimes difficult to find, and the Nationals' system is not particularly stocked. Matt Antonelli is on a quest to make it back to the Majors after being rushed there in the first place and injured afterwards; he's hitting .286/.375/.429 in 32 AAA plate appearances. The Nats shouldn't rush him back to the Majors too quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the big team come September. Tug Hulett is an option that intrigues me perhaps a little too much. He reminds me a little of F.P. Santangelo as a player with his patience and ability to play anywhere. Hulett has been awful in his 2 short ML stints (.194/.270/.254), but has been solid in the minors in his career (career .276/.386/.412 hitter in the minors, .272/.365/.435 at AAA); his upside is higher than Bixler's, whose patience and power are unlikely to develop. Buck Coats has been an average-or-better hitter at all levels in the minors, including a career .294/.352/.407 triple slash in AAA. He's on the Harrisburg DL right now, and doesn't look like a better option than Bixler at this point, but once Zimmerman returns and Hairston returns to the bench, a lefty bench bat like Hulett or Coats could look good. Steve Lombardozzi is probably still another year away from truly being a viable candidate, but his future is bright; he is 12 for 12 in the stolen base category this season and has a career .369 OBP in the minors despite generally playing at a young age at each level. Michael Martinez, a former Nats farmhand taken by the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft, could be returned to Washington as soon as this week...if they want him back. Martinez is technically a switch-hitter, but that would imply that he gets hits; he swings at just about everything, takes very few walks and has little power. His ability to play both the infield and the outfield is nice, but Bixler can do the same. Chances are, Bixler has a job until Zimmerman returns.

Honorable Mention
Jerry Hairston, who can't hit a fastball right down the middle on a hit and run.
Pudge Rodriguez, even though we love the gifs.
Rick Ankiel, who hits like Jason Marquis, but in a bad way.
Alex Cora, sadly our best utility option off of the bench.