The Nats are playing great baseball, with 5 straight wins and a +1 run differential on the season. That doesn't mean the team cannot be improved, though. Here are a few players currently playing in AAA Syracuse that could give the Nats a hand:
Hitters
IF Matt Antonelli is tops on my list for a callup. He's better than Bixler and is the only infielder in the Majors or AAA other than Desmond or Espinosa that has a future with the team. If you haven't already, read my interview with Antonelli here.
1B Michael Aubrey has struggled over his last few weeks, hitting .167/.323/.333 in his last 10 games. Still, he's an OBP machine with a little pop and a nice glove. Adam LaRoche's season-ending injury makes me want to call up Aubrey even more, as he's a left handed hitter who can serve as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement for Morse late in games (something Stairs is incapable of).
1B Chris Marrero is in the right place at the wrong time. His AAA numbers are solid (.290/.351/.450), but Morse's hot streak and RH bat make it so calling up Marrero and sitting him on the bench would be a detriment to the 22 year old's development. We'll see him in September I'm sure.
Pitchers
LHP Tom Milone has allowed more HR (5) than BB (4). And 5 HR ain't a whole lot to allow in 70 and 1/3 innings, anyways. With a 19:1 K:BB ratio and a respectable 3.58, we will probably see Milone in DC sometime this season, albeit the role may come as a reliever.
RHP Josh Wilkie probably should have gotten the call in 2009 and 10, but I'll still hold out hope that 2011 will be the year he gets his shot. While peripheral stats aren't as good as they were in 2009 and 10, the fact that he's put up consistently solid ones in three straight years at AAA make him a viable option.
RHP Brad Meyers has less BB (3) than Milone in more innings (76 and 1/3) across two levels. He's been prone to the long-ball in Syracuse (5 HR allowed in 7 starts), but has put up solid stats otherwise. Meyers has spent a considerably smaller amount of time in Syracuse so he's on the bottom of the totem pole. Still, a 24.33 K:BB ratio throughout his minor league appearances this year is awesome.
Showing posts with label Aubrey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aubrey. Show all posts
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
LVH's: Least Valuable Hitters
Matt Stairs
This should not be a surprise to anyone. Stairs is 3 for 34 on the year, with a .088/.244/.118 triple slash. He's got more walks (7) than total bases (4), and has been worth 0.4 wins below replacement. Stairs Stairs is 43 years old, has little upside and no defensive value. Stairs is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10% more than his career average, while only swinging at 49% of pitches inside the strike zone, almost 18% lower than his career average.
The argument that there is no viable replacement for Stairs is not valid, either, because the Nats have a 1B in AAA that deserves a shot at ML pitching: Michael Aubrey. Aubrey has limited ML experience, but is a good fielding lefty bat that can spot start and pinch hit against RHP. Aubrey's .283/.336/.487 career triple slash against RHP in the bigs would be a major improvement over Stairs, and his plate discipline is better than ever in AAA (17 BB/15 K in 34 games). If the Nats cut Stairs loose and called up Aubrey, the worst that can happen is no worse than what is happening now, so they should go ahead and do it. And for the record, I am against Chris Marrero being called up because he won't play every day.
Brian Bixler's 2011 numbers are Matt Stairs-ian: 3 for 21 with a .143/.217/.143 triple slash. If he sticks with the big club any longer, it's for 2 reasons: he's already here, and there ain't anybody pushing him. The Nats have some intriguing options, but they're all either too young or not a clear improvement over Bixler.
Replacements for even utility players that can't hit are sometimes difficult to find, and the Nationals' system is not particularly stocked. Matt Antonelli is on a quest to make it back to the Majors after being rushed there in the first place and injured afterwards; he's hitting .286/.375/.429 in 32 AAA plate appearances. The Nats shouldn't rush him back to the Majors too quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the big team come September. Tug Hulett is an option that intrigues me perhaps a little too much. He reminds me a little of F.P. Santangelo as a player with his patience and ability to play anywhere. Hulett has been awful in his 2 short ML stints (.194/.270/.254), but has been solid in the minors in his career (career .276/.386/.412 hitter in the minors, .272/.365/.435 at AAA); his upside is higher than Bixler's, whose patience and power are unlikely to develop. Buck Coats has been an average-or-better hitter at all levels in the minors, including a career .294/.352/.407 triple slash in AAA. He's on the Harrisburg DL right now, and doesn't look like a better option than Bixler at this point, but once Zimmerman returns and Hairston returns to the bench, a lefty bench bat like Hulett or Coats could look good. Steve Lombardozzi is probably still another year away from truly being a viable candidate, but his future is bright; he is 12 for 12 in the stolen base category this season and has a career .369 OBP in the minors despite generally playing at a young age at each level. Michael Martinez, a former Nats farmhand taken by the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft, could be returned to Washington as soon as this week...if they want him back. Martinez is technically a switch-hitter, but that would imply that he gets hits; he swings at just about everything, takes very few walks and has little power. His ability to play both the infield and the outfield is nice, but Bixler can do the same. Chances are, Bixler has a job until Zimmerman returns.
Honorable Mention
Jerry Hairston, who can't hit a fastball right down the middle on a hit and run.
Pudge Rodriguez, even though we love the gifs.
Rick Ankiel, who hits like Jason Marquis, but in a bad way.
Alex Cora, sadly our best utility option off of the bench.
This should not be a surprise to anyone. Stairs is 3 for 34 on the year, with a .088/.244/.118 triple slash. He's got more walks (7) than total bases (4), and has been worth 0.4 wins below replacement. Stairs Stairs is 43 years old, has little upside and no defensive value. Stairs is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10% more than his career average, while only swinging at 49% of pitches inside the strike zone, almost 18% lower than his career average.
The argument that there is no viable replacement for Stairs is not valid, either, because the Nats have a 1B in AAA that deserves a shot at ML pitching: Michael Aubrey. Aubrey has limited ML experience, but is a good fielding lefty bat that can spot start and pinch hit against RHP. Aubrey's .283/.336/.487 career triple slash against RHP in the bigs would be a major improvement over Stairs, and his plate discipline is better than ever in AAA (17 BB/15 K in 34 games). If the Nats cut Stairs loose and called up Aubrey, the worst that can happen is no worse than what is happening now, so they should go ahead and do it. And for the record, I am against Chris Marrero being called up because he won't play every day.
Brian Bixler's 2011 numbers are Matt Stairs-ian: 3 for 21 with a .143/.217/.143 triple slash. If he sticks with the big club any longer, it's for 2 reasons: he's already here, and there ain't anybody pushing him. The Nats have some intriguing options, but they're all either too young or not a clear improvement over Bixler.
Replacements for even utility players that can't hit are sometimes difficult to find, and the Nationals' system is not particularly stocked. Matt Antonelli is on a quest to make it back to the Majors after being rushed there in the first place and injured afterwards; he's hitting .286/.375/.429 in 32 AAA plate appearances. The Nats shouldn't rush him back to the Majors too quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the big team come September. Tug Hulett is an option that intrigues me perhaps a little too much. He reminds me a little of F.P. Santangelo as a player with his patience and ability to play anywhere. Hulett has been awful in his 2 short ML stints (.194/.270/.254), but has been solid in the minors in his career (career .276/.386/.412 hitter in the minors, .272/.365/.435 at AAA); his upside is higher than Bixler's, whose patience and power are unlikely to develop. Buck Coats has been an average-or-better hitter at all levels in the minors, including a career .294/.352/.407 triple slash in AAA. He's on the Harrisburg DL right now, and doesn't look like a better option than Bixler at this point, but once Zimmerman returns and Hairston returns to the bench, a lefty bench bat like Hulett or Coats could look good. Steve Lombardozzi is probably still another year away from truly being a viable candidate, but his future is bright; he is 12 for 12 in the stolen base category this season and has a career .369 OBP in the minors despite generally playing at a young age at each level. Michael Martinez, a former Nats farmhand taken by the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft, could be returned to Washington as soon as this week...if they want him back. Martinez is technically a switch-hitter, but that would imply that he gets hits; he swings at just about everything, takes very few walks and has little power. His ability to play both the infield and the outfield is nice, but Bixler can do the same. Chances are, Bixler has a job until Zimmerman returns.
Honorable Mention
Jerry Hairston, who can't hit a fastball right down the middle on a hit and run.
Pudge Rodriguez, even though we love the gifs.
Rick Ankiel, who hits like Jason Marquis, but in a bad way.
Alex Cora, sadly our best utility option off of the bench.
Monday, May 23, 2011
The Near Future of the 2011 Nats Offense
We're through almost 30% of the season, and as a result are on the borderline of "small sample size" discussions. It's still way too early to know if players who started hotter (Nix) or colder (LaRoche) than normal are sure bets to regress to the mean, but I've got to write my first post at the DC is for Baseball about something, so today we'll talk about the Nats' position players and the rest of the 2011 season.
Wilson Ramos is one of the few bright spots amongst Nationals position players this year, hitting .272/.347/.447 thus far. His original ZiPS projection for the season was to hit .267/.301/.403. MARCEL was a bit more favorable to Ramos, projecting a .273/.333/.429 triple slash. I don't expect Ramos to keep up his 9.6% walk rate (minor league high was 7.4% in high A in 2008, and rates were between 2.8 and 4.1% in 2009-10), but I also expect his 22% strikeout rate to dip back to around 16-17%. Ramos' BABIP at .325 is a little high for a slow catcher and his ISO at .180 is also a bit higher than projected, but neither differ enough from his career numbers to be considered true outliers. And by the way...did anybody notice Doug Glanville choosing him as his 2011 NL ROY?
Prognosis: slight regression. Ramos can keep up the batting average, but I expect to see a few less walks and a little less power for the rest of the year. I would be more than happy if he ended up with that MARCEL projection, and expect him to be somewhat in that range.
Pudge Rodriguez, on the other hand, is fading fast. His walk rate and ISO are higher than expected. His BABIP at .265 could see some improvement, but the most likely event will be his batting average rising a little while his OBP and SLG stay stagnant or decline. The Nats should given him to Boston when they had a chance, assuming Boston would have even taken him for free at this point.
Prognosis: about the same production, which isn't a good thing.
Adam LaRoche is injured. He's not a .172/.288/.258 hitter. He's not a guy with a .086 ISO. That being said, he might be a .172/.288/.258 hitter for the 2011 season if his second opinion shows significant shoulder damage. As a Nats fan, I hope for the best, but expect the worst. If LaRoche gets healthy and has significant playing time for the rest of the season, he'll probably end up around .230/.310/.440...not good by any means, but a major improvement over .172/.288/.258.
Prognosis: significant DL time, but significant improvement once healthy.
Michael Aubrey could be a nice in-house replacement for LaRoche if he goes on the DL as I expect. While Michael Morse would gobble up most of the playing time, Aubrey can hold his own in the Majors. He hit .289/.326/.500 in 95 PA for the Orioles in 2009 and has seen a major power surge from 2010 onwards. Aubrey could be up as soon as this week if the Nats cut Matt Stairs, and the former top prospect has the ability to provide good 1B defense to go with a solid LH bat off of the bench.
Prognosis: a batting line similar to Rick Ankiel's, but without as many K's.
Danny Espinosa has been both a pleasant surprise and a disappointment this year, despite his numbers looking a lot like their projections. Danny has been unlucky so far, with a .234 BABIP. If his luck starts evening out, he could end up around .230/.330/.430 or so, which would be a step in the right direction for the rookie. His power is for real, but the rest of his bat isn't quite there yet.
Prognosis: small improvement in BA, similar rate stats otherwise.
Ian Desmond is doing one thing right: stealing bases. His plate discipline has regressed, and his BABIP does not scream "unlucky," which scares me a little. Desmond may one day be a great shortstop, but has a lot of work to do before he's merely league average. He could start by taking some walks. This all being said, Desmond has nowhere to really go but up, and if he gets a confidence boost from a hot streak, he could end up beating his 2010 numbers across the board rather than simply the counting stats. Still waiting on that hot streak, though...
Prognosis: medium improvement in BA, OBP, SLG, but not resulting in an improvement over 2010 triple slash of .269/.308/.392.
Ryan Zimmerman cannot come back any sooner. Even if he hits .283/.333/.442 like he did in his last partial season, it would still be a major improvement over the likes of Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Alex Cora at 3B. At this point, Zimmerman should take his time and make sure he's fully healthy when he comes back so the Nats can have his full services for at least half of the season.
Prognosis: much better numbers than our 3B have hit in his absence.
Jerry Hairston, Jr. has done all that he can do in Zimmerman's absence, hitting vaguely around how we expected him to (.239/.310/.342 so far). His batting average is a little low, but he's both walking and striking out more than ever as well. I think he'll get a little better, but he still won't end up close to league average with the bat.
Prognosis: more hits, less walks and a little more power, which will result in a similar OBP and a nice .030-.040 bump in SLG.
Michael Morse...ugh. I expected regression from his 2010 numbers, but not a 3.8% BB rate and .093 ISO. LaRoche's potential injury could free up some more regular playing time at 1B, but Morse will have to hit his way into the lineup when everyone gets healthy no matter how many or few chances he gets. I expect him to bounce back a little, but not all that much.
Prognosis: a 2 week HR binge, average rest of the season, and a .255/.315/.420 triple slash to end the season.
Laynce Nix's power is more or less for real. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .070 higher than his career average and his BB rate is still only 4%. I think Nix turns into the role the Nats expected Ankiel to fill, which is fine with me. I'll take a guy who can hit .270, play solid D and bomb the bleachers in a part-time role. But just like with Ankiel, a good team wouldn't count on Nix to play a significant starting role, let alone bat 3rd in the lineup.
Prognosis: significant regression in all offensive categories. Nix won't bottom out, though.
Rick Ankiel has looked both better and worse than expected. His K rate is only 16.3%, a full 10% improvement from his career average. Unfortunately, with that major improvement comes a major drop in power, as Ankiel only has a .067 ISO. He'll end up with plenty of K's and HR's, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll do so with another team.
Prognosis: More power but a lot more K's.
Jayson Werth isn't as disappointing as people think. His rate stats are just a little below his recent history, and his walk rate and ISO are still solid, so I don't see why he won't rebound to his 2008-09 numbers.
Pronosis: slight improvement across the board.
Roger Bernadina only has 15 games worth of at-bats this year, but I think his numbers so far look about what they should, at .259/.333/.352. I think he'll develop into a .265/.345/.400 player eventually, but for now, I'm happy with any starter having an OBP above .330 in this offense.
Matt Stairs should be cut immediately.
Wilson Ramos is one of the few bright spots amongst Nationals position players this year, hitting .272/.347/.447 thus far. His original ZiPS projection for the season was to hit .267/.301/.403. MARCEL was a bit more favorable to Ramos, projecting a .273/.333/.429 triple slash. I don't expect Ramos to keep up his 9.6% walk rate (minor league high was 7.4% in high A in 2008, and rates were between 2.8 and 4.1% in 2009-10), but I also expect his 22% strikeout rate to dip back to around 16-17%. Ramos' BABIP at .325 is a little high for a slow catcher and his ISO at .180 is also a bit higher than projected, but neither differ enough from his career numbers to be considered true outliers. And by the way...did anybody notice Doug Glanville choosing him as his 2011 NL ROY?
Prognosis: slight regression. Ramos can keep up the batting average, but I expect to see a few less walks and a little less power for the rest of the year. I would be more than happy if he ended up with that MARCEL projection, and expect him to be somewhat in that range.
Pudge Rodriguez, on the other hand, is fading fast. His walk rate and ISO are higher than expected. His BABIP at .265 could see some improvement, but the most likely event will be his batting average rising a little while his OBP and SLG stay stagnant or decline. The Nats should given him to Boston when they had a chance, assuming Boston would have even taken him for free at this point.
Prognosis: about the same production, which isn't a good thing.
Adam LaRoche is injured. He's not a .172/.288/.258 hitter. He's not a guy with a .086 ISO. That being said, he might be a .172/.288/.258 hitter for the 2011 season if his second opinion shows significant shoulder damage. As a Nats fan, I hope for the best, but expect the worst. If LaRoche gets healthy and has significant playing time for the rest of the season, he'll probably end up around .230/.310/.440...not good by any means, but a major improvement over .172/.288/.258.
Prognosis: significant DL time, but significant improvement once healthy.
Michael Aubrey could be a nice in-house replacement for LaRoche if he goes on the DL as I expect. While Michael Morse would gobble up most of the playing time, Aubrey can hold his own in the Majors. He hit .289/.326/.500 in 95 PA for the Orioles in 2009 and has seen a major power surge from 2010 onwards. Aubrey could be up as soon as this week if the Nats cut Matt Stairs, and the former top prospect has the ability to provide good 1B defense to go with a solid LH bat off of the bench.
Prognosis: a batting line similar to Rick Ankiel's, but without as many K's.
Danny Espinosa has been both a pleasant surprise and a disappointment this year, despite his numbers looking a lot like their projections. Danny has been unlucky so far, with a .234 BABIP. If his luck starts evening out, he could end up around .230/.330/.430 or so, which would be a step in the right direction for the rookie. His power is for real, but the rest of his bat isn't quite there yet.
Prognosis: small improvement in BA, similar rate stats otherwise.
Ian Desmond is doing one thing right: stealing bases. His plate discipline has regressed, and his BABIP does not scream "unlucky," which scares me a little. Desmond may one day be a great shortstop, but has a lot of work to do before he's merely league average. He could start by taking some walks. This all being said, Desmond has nowhere to really go but up, and if he gets a confidence boost from a hot streak, he could end up beating his 2010 numbers across the board rather than simply the counting stats. Still waiting on that hot streak, though...
Prognosis: medium improvement in BA, OBP, SLG, but not resulting in an improvement over 2010 triple slash of .269/.308/.392.
Ryan Zimmerman cannot come back any sooner. Even if he hits .283/.333/.442 like he did in his last partial season, it would still be a major improvement over the likes of Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Alex Cora at 3B. At this point, Zimmerman should take his time and make sure he's fully healthy when he comes back so the Nats can have his full services for at least half of the season.
Prognosis: much better numbers than our 3B have hit in his absence.
Jerry Hairston, Jr. has done all that he can do in Zimmerman's absence, hitting vaguely around how we expected him to (.239/.310/.342 so far). His batting average is a little low, but he's both walking and striking out more than ever as well. I think he'll get a little better, but he still won't end up close to league average with the bat.
Prognosis: more hits, less walks and a little more power, which will result in a similar OBP and a nice .030-.040 bump in SLG.
Michael Morse...ugh. I expected regression from his 2010 numbers, but not a 3.8% BB rate and .093 ISO. LaRoche's potential injury could free up some more regular playing time at 1B, but Morse will have to hit his way into the lineup when everyone gets healthy no matter how many or few chances he gets. I expect him to bounce back a little, but not all that much.
Prognosis: a 2 week HR binge, average rest of the season, and a .255/.315/.420 triple slash to end the season.
Laynce Nix's power is more or less for real. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .070 higher than his career average and his BB rate is still only 4%. I think Nix turns into the role the Nats expected Ankiel to fill, which is fine with me. I'll take a guy who can hit .270, play solid D and bomb the bleachers in a part-time role. But just like with Ankiel, a good team wouldn't count on Nix to play a significant starting role, let alone bat 3rd in the lineup.
Prognosis: significant regression in all offensive categories. Nix won't bottom out, though.
Rick Ankiel has looked both better and worse than expected. His K rate is only 16.3%, a full 10% improvement from his career average. Unfortunately, with that major improvement comes a major drop in power, as Ankiel only has a .067 ISO. He'll end up with plenty of K's and HR's, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll do so with another team.
Prognosis: More power but a lot more K's.
Jayson Werth isn't as disappointing as people think. His rate stats are just a little below his recent history, and his walk rate and ISO are still solid, so I don't see why he won't rebound to his 2008-09 numbers.
Pronosis: slight improvement across the board.
Roger Bernadina only has 15 games worth of at-bats this year, but I think his numbers so far look about what they should, at .259/.333/.352. I think he'll develop into a .265/.345/.400 player eventually, but for now, I'm happy with any starter having an OBP above .330 in this offense.
Matt Stairs should be cut immediately.
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