The Nats are playing great baseball, with 5 straight wins and a +1 run differential on the season. That doesn't mean the team cannot be improved, though. Here are a few players currently playing in AAA Syracuse that could give the Nats a hand:
Hitters
IF Matt Antonelli is tops on my list for a callup. He's better than Bixler and is the only infielder in the Majors or AAA other than Desmond or Espinosa that has a future with the team. If you haven't already, read my interview with Antonelli here.
1B Michael Aubrey has struggled over his last few weeks, hitting .167/.323/.333 in his last 10 games. Still, he's an OBP machine with a little pop and a nice glove. Adam LaRoche's season-ending injury makes me want to call up Aubrey even more, as he's a left handed hitter who can serve as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement for Morse late in games (something Stairs is incapable of).
1B Chris Marrero is in the right place at the wrong time. His AAA numbers are solid (.290/.351/.450), but Morse's hot streak and RH bat make it so calling up Marrero and sitting him on the bench would be a detriment to the 22 year old's development. We'll see him in September I'm sure.
Pitchers
LHP Tom Milone has allowed more HR (5) than BB (4). And 5 HR ain't a whole lot to allow in 70 and 1/3 innings, anyways. With a 19:1 K:BB ratio and a respectable 3.58, we will probably see Milone in DC sometime this season, albeit the role may come as a reliever.
RHP Josh Wilkie probably should have gotten the call in 2009 and 10, but I'll still hold out hope that 2011 will be the year he gets his shot. While peripheral stats aren't as good as they were in 2009 and 10, the fact that he's put up consistently solid ones in three straight years at AAA make him a viable option.
RHP Brad Meyers has less BB (3) than Milone in more innings (76 and 1/3) across two levels. He's been prone to the long-ball in Syracuse (5 HR allowed in 7 starts), but has put up solid stats otherwise. Meyers has spent a considerably smaller amount of time in Syracuse so he's on the bottom of the totem pole. Still, a 24.33 K:BB ratio throughout his minor league appearances this year is awesome.
Showing posts with label Marrero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marrero. Show all posts
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Monday, June 6, 2011
Nationals Draft History: 2005-07
I love the MLB Draft, so today is like Christmas to me. Later on, you'll get a nice post looking at the guys the Nats take in the first round tonight, but for now it's a partial history of Nationals' drafts since they moved to DC.
2005:
1st round pick: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (1st round, 4th overall)
2nd pick: OF Justin Maxwell (4th round, 114th overall)
3rd pick: OF Ryan DeLaughter (5th round, 144th overall)
Other notable picks: Marco Estrada (6th round), John Lannan (11th round), Craig Stammen (12th round), Tyler Moore (41st round in 2005, 33rd round in 2006 and 16th round in 2008).
Still in the organization: Zimmerman, Lannan, Stammen, Tim Pahuta (18th round), Moore.
Notes:
-1073 ML games played by 2005 Nats draftees so far, with 23.1 WAR (led by Zimmerman's 17.9 and Lannan's 5.3).
-On paper, this draft was terrible in terms of players that made it to the Majors (5). In reality, it wasn't so bad; the Nationals did not have 2nd or 3rd round picks, got the 2nd best player in the draft in terms of WAR (Tulowitzki at 20.8 is the only one better than Zimmerman) and got value past the 10th round.
-The Nationals gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation for the signings of Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. Minnesota took LHP Brian Duensing with the 3rd round pick they received from the Nationals.
-Estrada was roughed up in Milwaukee last year but has rebounded nicely thus far in 2011.
2006:
1st round picks: 1B Chris Marrero (15th overall) and RHP Colton Willems (22nd overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Sean Black (59th overall, did not sign) and OF Stephen Englund (70th overall)
3rd round pick: IF Stephen King (91st overall)
Other notable picks: Glenn Gibson (4th round, 121st overall), Cole Kimball (12th round, 361st overall)
Still in the organization: Marrero, King, Cory VanAllen (5th round), Zech Zinicola (6th round) Sam Brown (7th round), Hassan Pena (13th round), Erik Arnesen (17th round), Adam Carr (18th round), Moore, Brad Peacock (41st round), Chad Jenkins (44th round in 2006 and 17th round in 2009).
Notes:
-10 games played by 2006 draftees so far with 0.2 WAR (all Kimball). Yuck.
-The Nats got the extra 1st and 2nd due to Esteban Loaiza signing with Oakland and Hector Carrasco signing with the Angels...nice! Too bad both picks turned into guys who are already retired at age 22.
-This draft is proof that having 5 picks in the top 100 is not a sure thing: the only ML player out of the Nats' 2006 draft thus far is Cole Kimball, who has only thrown 11 and 1/3 innings with the big club. Willems retired. Black did not sign with the Nats and was drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round in 2009. Englund got suspended for PEDs, converted to a pitcher and retired. King got suspended for PEDs and is kicking around in Harrisburg still.
-Gibson was dealt for Elijah Dukes and came back for the 2010 season, but is now with Kansas City's organization.
-VanAllen and Zinicola were supposed to be in the bigs quickly as relievers, but both are in AA this season.
-Arnesen's "soft-tosser" label has forever restricted his career growth despite solid numbers. Carr might eventually get a shot, but his control is still poor.
-29th rounder Khristopher Davis was drafted by Milwaukee in the 7th round in 2009 and hit 22 HR with a .897 OPS last season in A ball.
-The Nats drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds in the 30th round.
-Sooner or later, the Nationals are going to let Brad Peacock fly because he is always in beast-mode.
-Jenkins has control problems in Harrisburg, but at least he's still pitching.
2007:
1st round picks: LHP Ross Detwiler (6th overall), LHP Josh Smoker (31st overall) and OF Michael Burgess (49th overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (67th overall) and 3B Jake Smolinski (70th overall)
3rd round pick: 3B Steven Souza (100th overall)
Other notable picks: C Derek Norris (4th round), RHP Brad Meyers (5th round), LHP Jack McGeary (6th round)
Still in the organization: Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann, Norris, Meyers, McGeary, Patrick McCoy (10th round), Bill Rhinehart (11th round), Jeff Mandel (17th round)
Notes:
-59 games played by 2007 draftees thus far, with 0.5 total WAR (0.9 by Zimmermann and -0.4 by Detwiler).
-The Nats got the Smoker and Zimmermann picks as compensation for Alfonso Soriano and the Burgess pick as compensation for Jose Guillen.
-The jury is still out on Detwiler and McGeary, amongst others. These two still have the ability to be solid ML pitchers, but Detwiler needs to be more consistent and McGeary has to prove in 2011 that his arm troubles are behind him.
-Burgess is hitting .198 so far in high A ball for the Cubs following the Tom Gorzelanny trade this offseason.
-Smoker's numbers have been ugly since being drafted, but could reboot his career with better control according to John Sickels (via NationalsProspects).
-Souza looked like a bust through 2009, but his '10 and '11 seasons have shown some promise. He was suspended for PEDs last year, though, so that may have had something to do with the better numbers.
-Norris was a steal.
-Brad Meyers will be a National by the end of the season.
-Smolinski was one of the prospects dealt to Florida in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham deal. His minor league numbers are solid, but he doesn't do anything outstanding that really makes us miss him.
-Overall, a decent draft so far with a few players still around to improve the ranking.
2005:
1st round pick: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (1st round, 4th overall)
2nd pick: OF Justin Maxwell (4th round, 114th overall)
3rd pick: OF Ryan DeLaughter (5th round, 144th overall)
Other notable picks: Marco Estrada (6th round), John Lannan (11th round), Craig Stammen (12th round), Tyler Moore (41st round in 2005, 33rd round in 2006 and 16th round in 2008).
Still in the organization: Zimmerman, Lannan, Stammen, Tim Pahuta (18th round), Moore.
Notes:
-1073 ML games played by 2005 Nats draftees so far, with 23.1 WAR (led by Zimmerman's 17.9 and Lannan's 5.3).
-On paper, this draft was terrible in terms of players that made it to the Majors (5). In reality, it wasn't so bad; the Nationals did not have 2nd or 3rd round picks, got the 2nd best player in the draft in terms of WAR (Tulowitzki at 20.8 is the only one better than Zimmerman) and got value past the 10th round.
-The Nationals gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation for the signings of Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. Minnesota took LHP Brian Duensing with the 3rd round pick they received from the Nationals.
-Estrada was roughed up in Milwaukee last year but has rebounded nicely thus far in 2011.
2006:
1st round picks: 1B Chris Marrero (15th overall) and RHP Colton Willems (22nd overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Sean Black (59th overall, did not sign) and OF Stephen Englund (70th overall)
3rd round pick: IF Stephen King (91st overall)
Other notable picks: Glenn Gibson (4th round, 121st overall), Cole Kimball (12th round, 361st overall)
Still in the organization: Marrero, King, Cory VanAllen (5th round), Zech Zinicola (6th round) Sam Brown (7th round), Hassan Pena (13th round), Erik Arnesen (17th round), Adam Carr (18th round), Moore, Brad Peacock (41st round), Chad Jenkins (44th round in 2006 and 17th round in 2009).
Notes:
-10 games played by 2006 draftees so far with 0.2 WAR (all Kimball). Yuck.
-The Nats got the extra 1st and 2nd due to Esteban Loaiza signing with Oakland and Hector Carrasco signing with the Angels...nice! Too bad both picks turned into guys who are already retired at age 22.
-This draft is proof that having 5 picks in the top 100 is not a sure thing: the only ML player out of the Nats' 2006 draft thus far is Cole Kimball, who has only thrown 11 and 1/3 innings with the big club. Willems retired. Black did not sign with the Nats and was drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round in 2009. Englund got suspended for PEDs, converted to a pitcher and retired. King got suspended for PEDs and is kicking around in Harrisburg still.
-Gibson was dealt for Elijah Dukes and came back for the 2010 season, but is now with Kansas City's organization.
-VanAllen and Zinicola were supposed to be in the bigs quickly as relievers, but both are in AA this season.
-Arnesen's "soft-tosser" label has forever restricted his career growth despite solid numbers. Carr might eventually get a shot, but his control is still poor.
-29th rounder Khristopher Davis was drafted by Milwaukee in the 7th round in 2009 and hit 22 HR with a .897 OPS last season in A ball.
-The Nats drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds in the 30th round.
-Sooner or later, the Nationals are going to let Brad Peacock fly because he is always in beast-mode.
-Jenkins has control problems in Harrisburg, but at least he's still pitching.
2007:
1st round picks: LHP Ross Detwiler (6th overall), LHP Josh Smoker (31st overall) and OF Michael Burgess (49th overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (67th overall) and 3B Jake Smolinski (70th overall)
3rd round pick: 3B Steven Souza (100th overall)
Other notable picks: C Derek Norris (4th round), RHP Brad Meyers (5th round), LHP Jack McGeary (6th round)
Still in the organization: Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann, Norris, Meyers, McGeary, Patrick McCoy (10th round), Bill Rhinehart (11th round), Jeff Mandel (17th round)
Notes:
-59 games played by 2007 draftees thus far, with 0.5 total WAR (0.9 by Zimmermann and -0.4 by Detwiler).
-The Nats got the Smoker and Zimmermann picks as compensation for Alfonso Soriano and the Burgess pick as compensation for Jose Guillen.
-The jury is still out on Detwiler and McGeary, amongst others. These two still have the ability to be solid ML pitchers, but Detwiler needs to be more consistent and McGeary has to prove in 2011 that his arm troubles are behind him.
-Burgess is hitting .198 so far in high A ball for the Cubs following the Tom Gorzelanny trade this offseason.
-Smoker's numbers have been ugly since being drafted, but could reboot his career with better control according to John Sickels (via NationalsProspects).
-Souza looked like a bust through 2009, but his '10 and '11 seasons have shown some promise. He was suspended for PEDs last year, though, so that may have had something to do with the better numbers.
-Norris was a steal.
-Brad Meyers will be a National by the end of the season.
-Smolinski was one of the prospects dealt to Florida in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham deal. His minor league numbers are solid, but he doesn't do anything outstanding that really makes us miss him.
-Overall, a decent draft so far with a few players still around to improve the ranking.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
LVH's: Least Valuable Hitters
Matt Stairs
This should not be a surprise to anyone. Stairs is 3 for 34 on the year, with a .088/.244/.118 triple slash. He's got more walks (7) than total bases (4), and has been worth 0.4 wins below replacement. Stairs Stairs is 43 years old, has little upside and no defensive value. Stairs is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10% more than his career average, while only swinging at 49% of pitches inside the strike zone, almost 18% lower than his career average.
The argument that there is no viable replacement for Stairs is not valid, either, because the Nats have a 1B in AAA that deserves a shot at ML pitching: Michael Aubrey. Aubrey has limited ML experience, but is a good fielding lefty bat that can spot start and pinch hit against RHP. Aubrey's .283/.336/.487 career triple slash against RHP in the bigs would be a major improvement over Stairs, and his plate discipline is better than ever in AAA (17 BB/15 K in 34 games). If the Nats cut Stairs loose and called up Aubrey, the worst that can happen is no worse than what is happening now, so they should go ahead and do it. And for the record, I am against Chris Marrero being called up because he won't play every day.
Brian Bixler's 2011 numbers are Matt Stairs-ian: 3 for 21 with a .143/.217/.143 triple slash. If he sticks with the big club any longer, it's for 2 reasons: he's already here, and there ain't anybody pushing him. The Nats have some intriguing options, but they're all either too young or not a clear improvement over Bixler.
Replacements for even utility players that can't hit are sometimes difficult to find, and the Nationals' system is not particularly stocked. Matt Antonelli is on a quest to make it back to the Majors after being rushed there in the first place and injured afterwards; he's hitting .286/.375/.429 in 32 AAA plate appearances. The Nats shouldn't rush him back to the Majors too quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the big team come September. Tug Hulett is an option that intrigues me perhaps a little too much. He reminds me a little of F.P. Santangelo as a player with his patience and ability to play anywhere. Hulett has been awful in his 2 short ML stints (.194/.270/.254), but has been solid in the minors in his career (career .276/.386/.412 hitter in the minors, .272/.365/.435 at AAA); his upside is higher than Bixler's, whose patience and power are unlikely to develop. Buck Coats has been an average-or-better hitter at all levels in the minors, including a career .294/.352/.407 triple slash in AAA. He's on the Harrisburg DL right now, and doesn't look like a better option than Bixler at this point, but once Zimmerman returns and Hairston returns to the bench, a lefty bench bat like Hulett or Coats could look good. Steve Lombardozzi is probably still another year away from truly being a viable candidate, but his future is bright; he is 12 for 12 in the stolen base category this season and has a career .369 OBP in the minors despite generally playing at a young age at each level. Michael Martinez, a former Nats farmhand taken by the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft, could be returned to Washington as soon as this week...if they want him back. Martinez is technically a switch-hitter, but that would imply that he gets hits; he swings at just about everything, takes very few walks and has little power. His ability to play both the infield and the outfield is nice, but Bixler can do the same. Chances are, Bixler has a job until Zimmerman returns.
Honorable Mention
Jerry Hairston, who can't hit a fastball right down the middle on a hit and run.
Pudge Rodriguez, even though we love the gifs.
Rick Ankiel, who hits like Jason Marquis, but in a bad way.
Alex Cora, sadly our best utility option off of the bench.
This should not be a surprise to anyone. Stairs is 3 for 34 on the year, with a .088/.244/.118 triple slash. He's got more walks (7) than total bases (4), and has been worth 0.4 wins below replacement. Stairs Stairs is 43 years old, has little upside and no defensive value. Stairs is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, 10% more than his career average, while only swinging at 49% of pitches inside the strike zone, almost 18% lower than his career average.
The argument that there is no viable replacement for Stairs is not valid, either, because the Nats have a 1B in AAA that deserves a shot at ML pitching: Michael Aubrey. Aubrey has limited ML experience, but is a good fielding lefty bat that can spot start and pinch hit against RHP. Aubrey's .283/.336/.487 career triple slash against RHP in the bigs would be a major improvement over Stairs, and his plate discipline is better than ever in AAA (17 BB/15 K in 34 games). If the Nats cut Stairs loose and called up Aubrey, the worst that can happen is no worse than what is happening now, so they should go ahead and do it. And for the record, I am against Chris Marrero being called up because he won't play every day.
Brian Bixler's 2011 numbers are Matt Stairs-ian: 3 for 21 with a .143/.217/.143 triple slash. If he sticks with the big club any longer, it's for 2 reasons: he's already here, and there ain't anybody pushing him. The Nats have some intriguing options, but they're all either too young or not a clear improvement over Bixler.
Replacements for even utility players that can't hit are sometimes difficult to find, and the Nationals' system is not particularly stocked. Matt Antonelli is on a quest to make it back to the Majors after being rushed there in the first place and injured afterwards; he's hitting .286/.375/.429 in 32 AAA plate appearances. The Nats shouldn't rush him back to the Majors too quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the big team come September. Tug Hulett is an option that intrigues me perhaps a little too much. He reminds me a little of F.P. Santangelo as a player with his patience and ability to play anywhere. Hulett has been awful in his 2 short ML stints (.194/.270/.254), but has been solid in the minors in his career (career .276/.386/.412 hitter in the minors, .272/.365/.435 at AAA); his upside is higher than Bixler's, whose patience and power are unlikely to develop. Buck Coats has been an average-or-better hitter at all levels in the minors, including a career .294/.352/.407 triple slash in AAA. He's on the Harrisburg DL right now, and doesn't look like a better option than Bixler at this point, but once Zimmerman returns and Hairston returns to the bench, a lefty bench bat like Hulett or Coats could look good. Steve Lombardozzi is probably still another year away from truly being a viable candidate, but his future is bright; he is 12 for 12 in the stolen base category this season and has a career .369 OBP in the minors despite generally playing at a young age at each level. Michael Martinez, a former Nats farmhand taken by the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft, could be returned to Washington as soon as this week...if they want him back. Martinez is technically a switch-hitter, but that would imply that he gets hits; he swings at just about everything, takes very few walks and has little power. His ability to play both the infield and the outfield is nice, but Bixler can do the same. Chances are, Bixler has a job until Zimmerman returns.
Honorable Mention
Jerry Hairston, who can't hit a fastball right down the middle on a hit and run.
Pudge Rodriguez, even though we love the gifs.
Rick Ankiel, who hits like Jason Marquis, but in a bad way.
Alex Cora, sadly our best utility option off of the bench.
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