Zimmerman for McCutchen?

Talking about trading one of your most popular franchise players is often not a wise thing to do; you don't see many Brewers fans chanting "trade Ryan Braun," Red Sox bandwagonites asking to get Tacoby Bellsbury out of town or Stuart Sternberg (the only Rays fan in existence) trying to find Evan Longoria a new cap. Yet here I stand, suggesting that the Nationals move Ryan Zimmerman for the apparently (and idiotically) available Andrew McCutchen.

Let me first start with why the Nats should entertain the idea of moving Zimmerman in general. One note: I'm not screaming TRADE ZIMMERMAN, as he is an immensely valuable player...simply stating that his value to the Nats may be at his highest now.

1) Zimmerman is relatively expensive now ($12 mil in 2012, $14 mil in 2013) and will be a free agent after the 2013 season. Adam Kilgore in August spitballed the idea of an 8 year, $175 million deal for Zim ($21.875 mil/year); an extension could end up lower than that, but we're still talking about a major, MAJOR investment. McCutchen, on the other hand, is under team control through 2015, still one season away from arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that the Justin Upton 6 year, $51.75 mil contract could be a model for a McCutchen extension, but even a 6 year, $60 million deal would be a bargain.

2) Zimmerman's injury history, while perhaps overstated, still exists. He played in only 106 games in 2008 due to a small tear in his left shoulder, couldn't finish the last 10 days 2010 season because of a rib sprain and missed significant time in 2011 due to abdominal injuries. I'm much more worried about Rendon's injury history than Zimmerman's, but it's still at least a minor point of concern. Besides missing a few games due to a bum hand from being hit by pitch, McCutchen hasn't been significantly injured in his 2 years of MLB service

3) Zimmerman is an elite 3B, but 3B's are a lot easier to come by than CF's. The Nats have Rendon in the system behind him already (top prospects aren't slam dunks, but Rendon >>> anything the Nats have in CF). It's basically impossible to find an elite CF, which makes an already above-average CF like McCutchen so valuable.


On July 18, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs listed Zimmerman as the player with the tenth greatest trade value. His write-up:

Zimmerman is one of the game’s best players, but also one of the game’s best kept secrets. He is consistently ignored in things like All-Star placement and MVP voting despite the fact that he’s one of the best players in baseball. Because he’s not a premier power guy or an up-the-middle player and his value is largely tied to his defensive excellence, his excellence gets lost in the crowd, but it shouldn’t. He’s awesome. At $26 million over the next two years, he’s also one of the cheapest elite players in baseball, though the lack a true long term deal drags him down a bit. Still, his present value is sky high, and offsets most of the lack of value beyond 2013.

McCutchen came in at number six on Cameron's list:

Already a terrific all-around player, McCutchen has added power this year and made himself into a legitimate MVP candidate at age 24. His broad base of skills suggests that he’ll age extremely well, there’s no injury history to worry about, and the Pirates control his rights for four more years after this one. They haven’t yet locked him up to a long term deal, but even if he goes through the arbitration process, he’ll still be a tremendous bargain. If you want to start handing out praise for why baseball is relevant in Pittsburgh again, start with McCutchen.

There are many factors that can't be measured objectively, such as Zimmerman's local ties (grew up in the Tidewater area and went to UVA) or his charity work with the ziMS Foundation, but from a strictly baseball-oriented point of view, I think the Nats would be foolish to not make a trade like this if it were ever on the table.

This all being said, the Pirates probably aren't really shopping McCutchen and despite his 2011 awfulness, Pedro Alvarez is still a solid prospect at 3B for them. But who knows.

Vote in the poll:

Nationals Draft History: 2005-07

I love the MLB Draft, so today is like Christmas to me. Later on, you'll get a nice post looking at the guys the Nats take in the first round tonight, but for now it's a partial history of Nationals' drafts since they moved to DC.

2005:
1st round pick: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (1st round, 4th overall)
2nd pick: OF Justin Maxwell (4th round, 114th overall)
3rd pick: OF Ryan DeLaughter (5th round, 144th overall)

Other notable picks: Marco Estrada (6th round), John Lannan (11th round), Craig Stammen (12th round), Tyler Moore (41st round in 2005, 33rd round in 2006 and 16th round in 2008).

Still in the organization: Zimmerman, Lannan, Stammen, Tim Pahuta (18th round), Moore.

Notes:
-1073 ML games played by 2005 Nats draftees so far, with 23.1 WAR (led by Zimmerman's 17.9 and Lannan's 5.3).
-On paper, this draft was terrible in terms of players that made it to the Majors (5). In reality, it wasn't so bad; the Nationals did not have 2nd or 3rd round picks, got the 2nd best player in the draft in terms of WAR (Tulowitzki at 20.8 is the only one better than Zimmerman) and got value past the 10th round.
-The Nationals gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation for the signings of Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman. Minnesota took LHP Brian Duensing with the 3rd round pick they received from the Nationals.
-Estrada was roughed up in Milwaukee last year but has rebounded nicely thus far in 2011.


2006:
1st round picks: 1B Chris Marrero (15th overall) and RHP Colton Willems (22nd overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Sean Black (59th overall, did not sign) and OF Stephen Englund (70th overall)
3rd round pick: IF Stephen King (91st overall)

Other notable picks: Glenn Gibson (4th round, 121st overall), Cole Kimball (12th round, 361st overall)

Still in the organization: Marrero, King, Cory VanAllen (5th round), Zech Zinicola (6th round) Sam Brown (7th round), Hassan Pena (13th round), Erik Arnesen (17th round), Adam Carr (18th round), Moore, Brad Peacock (41st round), Chad Jenkins (44th round in 2006 and 17th round in 2009).

Notes:
-10 games played by 2006 draftees so far with 0.2 WAR (all Kimball). Yuck.
-The Nats got the extra 1st and 2nd due to Esteban Loaiza signing with Oakland and Hector Carrasco signing with the Angels...nice! Too bad both picks turned into guys who are already retired at age 22.
-This draft is proof that having 5 picks in the top 100 is not a sure thing: the only ML player out of the Nats' 2006 draft thus far is Cole Kimball, who has only thrown 11 and 1/3 innings with the big club. Willems retired. Black did not sign with the Nats and was drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round in 2009. Englund got suspended for PEDs, converted to a pitcher and retired. King got suspended for PEDs and is kicking around in Harrisburg still.
-Gibson was dealt for Elijah Dukes and came back for the 2010 season, but is now with Kansas City's organization.
-VanAllen and Zinicola were supposed to be in the bigs quickly as relievers, but both are in AA this season.
-Arnesen's "soft-tosser" label has forever restricted his career growth despite solid numbers. Carr might eventually get a shot, but his control is still poor.
-29th rounder Khristopher Davis was drafted by Milwaukee in the 7th round in 2009 and hit 22 HR with a .897 OPS last season in A ball.
-The Nats drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds in the 30th round.
-Sooner or later, the Nationals are going to let Brad Peacock fly because he is always in beast-mode.
-Jenkins has control problems in Harrisburg, but at least he's still pitching.


2007:
1st round picks: LHP Ross Detwiler (6th overall), LHP Josh Smoker (31st overall) and OF Michael Burgess (49th overall)
2nd round picks: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (67th overall) and 3B Jake Smolinski (70th overall)
3rd round pick: 3B Steven Souza (100th overall)

Other notable picks: C Derek Norris (4th round), RHP Brad Meyers (5th round), LHP Jack McGeary (6th round)

Still in the organization: Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann, Norris, Meyers, McGeary, Patrick McCoy (10th round), Bill Rhinehart (11th round), Jeff Mandel (17th round)

Notes:
-59 games played by 2007 draftees thus far, with 0.5 total WAR (0.9 by Zimmermann and -0.4 by Detwiler).
-The Nats got the Smoker and Zimmermann picks as compensation for Alfonso Soriano and the Burgess pick as compensation for Jose Guillen.
-The jury is still out on Detwiler and McGeary, amongst others. These two still have the ability to be solid ML pitchers, but Detwiler needs to be more consistent and McGeary has to prove in 2011 that his arm troubles are behind him.
-Burgess is hitting .198 so far in high A ball for the Cubs following the Tom Gorzelanny trade this offseason.
-Smoker's numbers have been ugly since being drafted, but could reboot his career with better control according to John Sickels (via NationalsProspects).
-Souza looked like a bust through 2009, but his '10 and '11 seasons have shown some promise. He was suspended for PEDs last year, though, so that may have had something to do with the better numbers.
-Norris was a steal.
-Brad Meyers will be a National by the end of the season.
-Smolinski was one of the prospects dealt to Florida in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham deal. His minor league numbers are solid, but he doesn't do anything outstanding that really makes us miss him.
-Overall, a decent draft so far with a few players still around to improve the ranking.

The Near Future of the 2011 Nats Offense

We're through almost 30% of the season, and as a result are on the borderline of "small sample size" discussions.   It's still way too early to know if players who started hotter (Nix) or colder (LaRoche) than normal are sure bets to regress to the mean, but I've got to write my first post at the DC is for Baseball about something, so today we'll talk about the Nats' position players and the rest of the 2011 season.

Wilson Ramos is one of the few bright spots amongst Nationals position players this year, hitting .272/.347/.447 thus far. His original ZiPS projection for the season was to hit .267/.301/.403. MARCEL was a bit more favorable to Ramos, projecting a .273/.333/.429 triple slash. I don't expect Ramos to keep up his 9.6% walk rate (minor league high was 7.4% in high A in 2008, and rates were between 2.8 and 4.1% in 2009-10), but I also expect his 22% strikeout rate to dip back to around 16-17%. Ramos' BABIP at .325 is a little high for a slow catcher and his ISO at .180 is also a bit higher than projected, but neither differ enough from his career numbers to be considered true outliers. And by the way...did anybody notice Doug Glanville choosing him as his 2011 NL ROY?
Prognosis: slight regression. Ramos can keep up the batting average, but I expect to see a few less walks and a little less power for the rest of the year. I would be more than happy if he ended up with that MARCEL projection, and expect him to be somewhat in that range.

Pudge Rodriguez, on the other hand, is fading fast. His walk rate and ISO are higher than expected. His BABIP at .265 could see some improvement, but the most likely event will be his batting average rising a little while his OBP and SLG stay stagnant or decline. The Nats should given him to Boston when they had a chance, assuming Boston would have even taken him for free at this point.
Prognosis: about the same production, which isn't a good thing.

Adam LaRoche is injured. He's not a .172/.288/.258 hitter. He's not a guy with a .086 ISO. That being said, he might be a .172/.288/.258 hitter for the 2011 season if his second opinion shows significant shoulder damage. As a Nats fan, I hope for the best, but expect the worst. If LaRoche gets healthy and has significant playing time for the rest of the season, he'll probably end up around .230/.310/.440...not good by any means, but a major improvement over .172/.288/.258.
Prognosis: significant DL time, but significant improvement once healthy.

Michael Aubrey could be a nice in-house replacement for LaRoche if he goes on the DL as I expect. While Michael Morse would gobble up most of the playing time, Aubrey can hold his own in the Majors. He hit .289/.326/.500 in 95 PA for the Orioles in 2009 and has seen a major power surge from 2010 onwards. Aubrey could be up as soon as this week if the Nats cut Matt Stairs, and the former top prospect has the ability to provide good 1B defense to go with a solid LH bat off of the bench.
Prognosis: a batting line similar to Rick Ankiel's, but without as many K's.

Danny Espinosa has been both a pleasant surprise and a disappointment this year, despite his numbers looking a lot like their projections. Danny has been unlucky so far, with a .234 BABIP. If his luck starts evening out, he could end up around .230/.330/.430 or so, which would be a step in the right direction for the rookie. His power is for real, but the rest of his bat isn't quite there yet.
Prognosis: small improvement in BA, similar rate stats otherwise.

Ian Desmond is doing one thing right: stealing bases. His plate discipline has regressed, and his BABIP does not scream "unlucky," which scares me a little. Desmond may one day be a great shortstop, but has a lot of work to do before he's merely league average. He could start by taking some walks. This all being said, Desmond has nowhere to really go but up, and if he gets a confidence boost from a hot streak, he could end up beating his 2010 numbers across the board rather than simply the counting stats. Still waiting on that hot streak, though...
Prognosis: medium improvement in BA, OBP, SLG, but not resulting in an improvement over 2010 triple slash of .269/.308/.392.

Ryan Zimmerman cannot come back any sooner. Even if he hits .283/.333/.442 like he did in his last partial season, it would still be a major improvement over the likes of Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Alex Cora at 3B. At this point, Zimmerman should take his time and make sure he's fully healthy when he comes back so the Nats can have his full services for at least half of the season.
Prognosis: much better numbers than our 3B have hit in his absence.

Jerry Hairston, Jr. has done all that he can do in Zimmerman's absence, hitting vaguely around how we expected him to (.239/.310/.342 so far). His batting average is a little low, but he's both walking and striking out more than ever as well. I think he'll get a little better, but he still won't end up close to league average with the bat.
Prognosis: more hits, less walks and a little more power, which will result in a similar OBP and a nice .030-.040 bump in SLG.

Michael Morse...ugh. I expected regression from his 2010 numbers, but not a 3.8% BB rate and .093 ISO.  LaRoche's potential injury could free up some more regular playing time at 1B, but Morse will have to hit his way into the lineup when everyone gets healthy no matter how many or few chances he gets. I expect him to bounce back a little, but not all that much.
Prognosis: a 2 week HR binge, average rest of the season, and a .255/.315/.420 triple slash to end the season.

Laynce Nix's power is more or less for real. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .070 higher than his career average and his BB rate is still only 4%. I think Nix turns into the role the Nats expected Ankiel to fill, which is fine with me. I'll take a guy who can hit .270, play solid D and bomb the bleachers in a part-time role. But just like with Ankiel, a good team wouldn't count on Nix to play a significant starting role, let alone bat 3rd in the lineup.
Prognosis: significant regression in all offensive categories. Nix won't bottom out, though.

Rick Ankiel has looked both better and worse than expected. His K rate is only 16.3%, a full 10% improvement from his career average. Unfortunately, with that major improvement comes a major drop in power, as Ankiel only has a .067 ISO. He'll end up with plenty of K's and HR's, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll do so with another team.
Prognosis: More power but a lot more K's.


Jayson Werth isn't as disappointing as people think. His rate stats are just a little below his recent history, and his walk rate and ISO are still solid, so I don't see why he won't rebound to his 2008-09 numbers.
Pronosis: slight improvement across the board.


Roger Bernadina only has 15 games worth of at-bats this year, but I think his numbers so far look about what they should, at .259/.333/.352. I think he'll develop into a .265/.345/.400 player eventually, but for now, I'm happy with any starter having an OBP above .330 in this offense.

Matt Stairs should be cut immediately.