5 things to know about Tyler Moore

As you might have seen, 1B/OF prospect Tyler Moore is on his way to Los Angeles the big leagues to make his ML debut, as Mark DeRosa has (mercifully) been sent to the DL. I've historically not been a big fan of Moore as a true prospect, but this is the perfect opportunity to get him some AB's to show what he can do. Here are 5 things to know about Moore before he plays in his first game.

1 - He is an excellent platoon candidate with Adam LaRoche.
Moore, a right-handed hitter, is absolutely annihilating left-handed pitching this season. In 20 plate appearances, he's hitting .421/.450/.789 with 2 HR and 6 RBI. While LaRoche is hitting .389/.450/.611 vs LHP this season, he is a career .249/.306/.436 against them. To get the most value about of Moore (as well as LaRoche), Davey should go with a platoon situation where Moore starts at 1B vs LHP and gets additional playing time with spot starts in the outfield and pinch hitting opportunities.

2 - He has aesome power. Not awesome. Aesome.
Along with Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt and Moore are the only players to hit 30+ HR in both 2010 and 2011. Moore's career ISO is .221, which is very impressive. Tyler Moore doesn't have above average tools across the board, but he can definitely hit the crap out of the ball.

3 - His plate discipline is improving slowly.
Plate discipline is the reason I wasn't a huge fan of Moore in the first place. Striking out roughly 4 times per every walk is a recipe for disaster once players start facing pitchers at the MLB level who attack weaknesses. While it is a very small sample size, Moore has walked 10 times in his first 22 games in AAA against 20 strikeouts, improving his BB% from a previous career high of 8.4% (and 5.3% last year) up to 11% this season. He's striking out at his normal high rate, but the higher walk rate makes it tolerable. There is a huge difference between the value of a .270/.310/.500 hitter and a .270/.340/.500 hitter.

4 - He's a better fielder than you might expect.
Moore is not just a right-handed Adam Dunn. While his range in the outfield leaves something to be desired, he's a sure-handed 1B who won't kill you in the outfield.

MASN's Byron Kerr in March talked to Nationals outfield coordinator Tony Tarasco:
"I don't expect Tyler Moore to wow you (in the outfield), but I do expect Tyler Moore to make the routine plays. And with his baseball intellect, he is the type guy who will throw the ball to the right base. He is going to make sure he doesn't miss cutoff men, the little pet peeves that haunt baseball teams (if those plays aren't made) during the season when they are trying to win baseball games."

5 - He is a polarizing player.
He's not just a right-handed Adam Dunn, but do you remember how polarizing Adam Dunn was? Not everybody loves guys that strike out a lot, even if they hit a ton of home runs. As I said before, I haven't been a big fan of Moore due to his poor walk rate. If his early 2012 improvement in plate discipline drops back to his 2011 (or even 2012 spring training, where he found a way to have a .296 batting average and .286 OBP and no, that's not a typo), he's basically a 1 tool player. That tool is aesome, but the rest leaves something to be desired, and he'll always have detractors.

Remembering Leslie Sherman

5 years ago today, the Nationals beat the Braves 5-1 to "improve" to 4-9 on the season. Was it a particularly memorable game? To most, probably not. It was a nice game, sure; the Nats got 5 runs and 9 hits out of their top 4 batters in the lineup (Felipe Lopez, Ronnie Belliard, Ryan Zimmerman and Dmitri Young) and Matt Chico pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball (with a spectacular 5 BB/0 K ratio). To me, though, this game was an escape from what had become the worst day of my life.

5 years ago today, my favorite place in the entire world was violated by a student named Sueng-Hui Cho. My oldest sister was a senior at Virginia Tech at the time (thankfully she was not harmed). My grandparents live about 20 minutes away from Blacksburg. My parents met at the school. I had sent in my deposit about 4 months prior and was ecstatic about joining the incoming class of 2011. 

It was surreal at the time; obviously, a mass shooting is something that you would never expect to happen at the place that makes you feel happy and safe at the same time. Nobody deserves to lose a loved one in a tragedy, but could this really be happening to us? And even after watching all of the news coverage, it still didn't feel real. Then we got the call, and all I can remember is hearing from my sister, "Leslie is gone."

Leslie Sherman was loved by everyone who knew her. In just over 20 years on Earth, she made more people laugh and smile than I think anyone else could do in 100. There isn't one word that could really describe her; nice, outgoing, friendly and spunky could all fit, but they don't do her justice. Leslie was well on her way to changing the world when her life was taken, but to be honest, she changed the hearts of so many others that the world really is a better place because of her.

Tragedies do not only have change the lives of those who lost loved ones. Please take some time, read about Leslie and let her story inspire you to be a better person.

VT page

Arlington National Cemetary page

Washington Post page

Roanoke Times obit

VT-Memorial.org page

We are Virginia Tech. 

We are sad today, and we will be sad for quite a while. We are not moving on, we are embracing our mourning.

We are Virginia Tech.

We are strong enough to stand tall tearlessly, we are brave enough to bend to cry, and we are sad enough to know that we must laugh again.

We are Virginia Tech.

We do not understand this tragedy. We know we did nothing to deserve it, but neither does a child in Africa dying of AIDS, neither do the invisible children walking the night away to avoid being captured by the rogue army, neither does the baby elephant watching his community being devastated for ivory, neither does the Mexican child looking for fresh water, neither does the Appalachian infant killed in the middle of the night in his crib in the home his father built with his own hands being run over by a boulder because the land was destabilized. No one deserves a tragedy. 

We are Virginia Tech.

The Hokie Nation embraces our own and reaches out with open heart and hands to those who offer their hearts and minds. We are strong, and brave, and innocent, and unafraid. We are better than we think and not quite what we want to be. We are alive to the imaginations and the possibilities. We will continue to invent the future through our blood and tears and through all our sadness.

We are the Hokies. 
We will prevail. 
We will prevail. 
We will prevail. 
We are Virginia Tech. - Nikki Giovanni, April 17, 2007

On the farm update - 4/12/12

Before I say anything else: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. Stats from the first 5-7 games of the season are not statistically significant enough to draw any conclusions. I will use them to hopelessly buy in to the encouraging trends some players are showing and at the same time dismiss discouraging trends due to small sample size.

Looking good so far:

Corey Brown - One of my personal favorites, Brown is hitting .409/.536/.636 in his first 6 AAA games, including a 5 BB/2 K ratio. Given his poor 47 BB/136 K ratio from AAA and ML in 2011, the early plate discipline is encouraging. 

Tyler Moore - Gotta give a guy I'm not as high on as most credit. Moore has only struck out 3 times in his first 6 games 21 at bats and has walked 3 times as well. Coming from a guy that generally strikes out an average of once per game and walks about once every four, I'm pleased to start the year.

Yunesky Maya - Oh yes, I went there. #1 on our least wanted list threw 6 shutout innings in his 2012 Syracuse debut with 4 K's, 4 hits and 0 BB allowed. Again, SMALLSAMPLESIZEOMGMAYASTILLSUCKS.

Zach Duke - Had a similar start to Maya, except with 1 run and 1 BB allowed. Duke will always be somewhat overrated because of his awesome 2005 rookie half-season, but is still a useful ML pitcher, and I would be surprised not to see him at some point this year.

Jeff Kobernus - Everything is fueled by an astronomic BABIP, but a .406/.424/.469 first week with 5/6 SB and 6 runs deserves a mention.

Jason Martinson - Already has 10 BB and 10 K through 7 games. 13 runs, 2 HR and a perfect 6/6 on SB attempts make him stick out compared to the others in the organization.

David Freitas - He's thought to be a below average defensive catcher, so his bat needs to carry him to the big leagues. At this rate, he's in good shape; David is hitting .467/.500/.733 so far this year.

Matt Skole - 10 K's in 23 AB's is a little bit disconcerting, but he has hits in most of his non-K at-bats and is at .348/.429/.565 so far.

Caleb Ramsey - .304/.360/.391. Get used to it.

Nathan Karns - 10 K and 2 hits allowed through his first 7 innings pitched. 

Alex Meyer - 5 scoreless frames in his MiLB debut with 2 hits allowed, 0 BB and 4 K.

Doing better than you think:

Bryce Harper - He's still like 14 years old and playing in AAA. .261/.320/.391 is okay for now. He still needs more minor league time, though. I am a part of a very small minority it seems that thinks Harper should be called up no earlier than August. His bat is likely going to face a significant adjustment when he hits the bigs for the first time, and it's probably not going to help the team all that much. So why burn future money to see a future star disappoint when you can save the hype train for a rainy day (like, say, when Strasburg gets shut down for the year).

Not looking so good:

Jason Michaels - 1 for his first 13. His days of being a borderline ML roster player are behind him, but I'm sure he'll be a solid veteran presence in Syracuse.

Rafael Martin - Another of my personal favorites, at least until he gave up 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning on Sunday.

The rotation behind Maya and Duke - Woof. Tanner Roark got busted up in his second outing and wasn't spectacular in his first, either. Mitch Atkins found a way to allow 4 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings with only 1 unearned run allowed to show for it, but he probably won't get that lucky again. John Lannan got bombed, as we all know by now.

Harrisburg's plate discipline - No batter has more than 2 walks, and none of the prospect types (Kobernus, Perez, Hood) have more than 1. If you have poor plate discipline, you will get eaten alive by better pitching. These guys need to develop it at lower levels so when they get to AAA or the bigs, the holes in their swings won't be taken advantage of in every at bat.

The guys in Potomac that I like - Michael Taylor is hitting .176/.364/.235 (yay walks!) but has been caught in all 3 SB attempts. Kevin Keyes is hitting .100/.182/.100. The "Groovin' Aruban" Randolph Oduber is at .158/.200/.211. Hopefully these guys will warm up and start hitting like Freitas.

March Madness - Who are the Nats rooting for?

I don't know for sure who the Nationals are really rooting for, but here are the Nationals (and some notable prospects) who attended schools competing for the NCAA Tournament in Basketball:


Alex Meyer - Kentucky (#1 in South Region, plays #16 Western Kentucky on Thursday)
Blake Monar - Indiana (#4 in South Region, plays #13 New Mexico State on Thursday)
Taylor Hill - Vanderbilt (#5 in East Region, plays #12 Harvard on Thursday)
Stephen Strasburg - San Diego State (#6 seed in Midwest Region, plays #11 NC State on Friday)
Brad Lidge & Brian Dupra - Notre Dame (#7 seed in South Region, plays #10 Xavier on Friday)
Mark Teahen - St. Mary's (#7 in Midwest Region, plays #10 Purdue on Friday)
Jeff Fulchino - UConn (#9 seed in South Region, plays #8 Iowa State on Thursday)
Jarrett Hoffpauir - Southern Miss (#9 in East Region, plays #8 Kansas State on Thursday)
Ryan Zimmerman - Virginia (#10 seed in West Region, plays #7 Florida on Friday)
Danny Espinosa - Long Beach State (#12 seed in West Region, plays #5 New Mexico on Thursday)
Jeff Kobernus & Dixon Anderson - California (#12 in Midwest Region, playing #12 South Florida on Wednesday in a play-in game)

Craig Stammen - Dayton (not in the tournament, but can watch the "first four" games at his home arena!)

Brad Lidge's upside (and downside)

Brad Lidge is not anywhere near the pitcher he used to be. That being said, he could still be a solid contributor for the Nationals in 2012.

First of all, Lidge's average velocity on his fastball and slider have gone down significantly over the last two seasons (where he has missed significant time due to an elbow injury and rotator cuff surgery). Last season, his fastball velocity averaged 89 MPH and his slider averaged 80.9 MPH, far off of his career paces of 94.6 and 85.8 respectively (and his 2010 post-elbow injury 91.7 MPH average fastball and 83.4 MPH average slider). He also leaned on his slider much more in 2011 than ever before, throwing the pitch 72% of the time as opposed to about 45% of the time over his career and 60% of the time in his previous career high in 2011.

What does this mean? It's hard to say. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs theorized in July that if Lidge could dominate with his slider, he could continue being a reliable reliever in 2011 and beyond. His 2011 rate stats were both good and bad, with a 10.71 K/9 rate but a 6.05 BB/9 rate to go along with it. The high strikeout rate gives me optimism, as anything over 9 is very good and over 10 is awesome. The walk rate doesn't worry me all that much because, even though Lidge has never been a wizard with his control, he's still generally in the 4-5 BB/9 range, not near 6.

Bill James' projections put Lidge down for a 3.86 ERA, 11.57 K/9 and 5.14 BB/9 in 2012 with a 1.03 HR/9 rate. I'd be surprised if they ended up around there, to be honest. I think he's going to be either awful or solid. If he can get solid velocity out of his fastball and slider and control him, he'll be pretty good; if he can't, he'll probably be pretty bad.



Side note - I hope you enjoy 2011 Nationals Draft Info. I'm in the process of updating the profile for each signed player with 2011 stats (tables from Baseball-Reference) as well as new analysis and reports from the likes of Luke Erickson of Nationals Prospects, Ryan Sullivan of Nationals GM, Todd Boss of Nationals Arm Race, Jeff Reese of Bullpen Banter and potentially some other surprise guests. I'll be updating them three times a week (Monday, Wednesday and Friday) with some double posting possible.

To date, the following players have been updated:
Monday, 1/23: 50th round OF Anthony Nix
Wednesday, 1/25: 45th round RHP Richie Mirowski
Friday, 1/27: 41st round IF Bryce Ortega
Monday, 1/30: 36th round LHP Ben Hawkins
Thursday, 2/2: 35th round RHP Alex Kreis
Friday, 2/3: 33rd round 2B Trey Karlen
Monday, 2/6: 32nd round OF Billy Burns

Zimmerman for McCutchen?

Talking about trading one of your most popular franchise players is often not a wise thing to do; you don't see many Brewers fans chanting "trade Ryan Braun," Red Sox bandwagonites asking to get Tacoby Bellsbury out of town or Stuart Sternberg (the only Rays fan in existence) trying to find Evan Longoria a new cap. Yet here I stand, suggesting that the Nationals move Ryan Zimmerman for the apparently (and idiotically) available Andrew McCutchen.

Let me first start with why the Nats should entertain the idea of moving Zimmerman in general. One note: I'm not screaming TRADE ZIMMERMAN, as he is an immensely valuable player...simply stating that his value to the Nats may be at his highest now.

1) Zimmerman is relatively expensive now ($12 mil in 2012, $14 mil in 2013) and will be a free agent after the 2013 season. Adam Kilgore in August spitballed the idea of an 8 year, $175 million deal for Zim ($21.875 mil/year); an extension could end up lower than that, but we're still talking about a major, MAJOR investment. McCutchen, on the other hand, is under team control through 2015, still one season away from arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that the Justin Upton 6 year, $51.75 mil contract could be a model for a McCutchen extension, but even a 6 year, $60 million deal would be a bargain.

2) Zimmerman's injury history, while perhaps overstated, still exists. He played in only 106 games in 2008 due to a small tear in his left shoulder, couldn't finish the last 10 days 2010 season because of a rib sprain and missed significant time in 2011 due to abdominal injuries. I'm much more worried about Rendon's injury history than Zimmerman's, but it's still at least a minor point of concern. Besides missing a few games due to a bum hand from being hit by pitch, McCutchen hasn't been significantly injured in his 2 years of MLB service

3) Zimmerman is an elite 3B, but 3B's are a lot easier to come by than CF's. The Nats have Rendon in the system behind him already (top prospects aren't slam dunks, but Rendon >>> anything the Nats have in CF). It's basically impossible to find an elite CF, which makes an already above-average CF like McCutchen so valuable.


On July 18, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs listed Zimmerman as the player with the tenth greatest trade value. His write-up:

Zimmerman is one of the game’s best players, but also one of the game’s best kept secrets. He is consistently ignored in things like All-Star placement and MVP voting despite the fact that he’s one of the best players in baseball. Because he’s not a premier power guy or an up-the-middle player and his value is largely tied to his defensive excellence, his excellence gets lost in the crowd, but it shouldn’t. He’s awesome. At $26 million over the next two years, he’s also one of the cheapest elite players in baseball, though the lack a true long term deal drags him down a bit. Still, his present value is sky high, and offsets most of the lack of value beyond 2013.

McCutchen came in at number six on Cameron's list:

Already a terrific all-around player, McCutchen has added power this year and made himself into a legitimate MVP candidate at age 24. His broad base of skills suggests that he’ll age extremely well, there’s no injury history to worry about, and the Pirates control his rights for four more years after this one. They haven’t yet locked him up to a long term deal, but even if he goes through the arbitration process, he’ll still be a tremendous bargain. If you want to start handing out praise for why baseball is relevant in Pittsburgh again, start with McCutchen.

There are many factors that can't be measured objectively, such as Zimmerman's local ties (grew up in the Tidewater area and went to UVA) or his charity work with the ziMS Foundation, but from a strictly baseball-oriented point of view, I think the Nats would be foolish to not make a trade like this if it were ever on the table.

This all being said, the Pirates probably aren't really shopping McCutchen and despite his 2011 awfulness, Pedro Alvarez is still a solid prospect at 3B for them. But who knows.

Vote in the poll:

Ranking the Nats' minor league free agent pitchers

Baseball America releases a beautiful list of 500+ minor league free agents every November. In the past, I have attempted to do write-ups on all of them (or at least all of the relevant ones). This year, I'll simply rank the Nats' 26 minor league FA's and perhaps in a later post list some of the more intriguing names on the list from other organizations. Today, we'll look at the 8 pitchers who are now FA's.

One note - I will try to keep this updated as any of these players sign with other orgs or re-sign with the Nats. I haven't been able to keep up over the last week, though, so leave comments (with links) if you read anything on these guys.

1. LHP Oliver Perez
Perez' bugaboo across his entire career has been his control. His best 2 ML seasons control-wise featured walk rates of 3.7 (2004) and 4.0 (2007); coincidentally, those were his best 2 ML seasons overall, putting up a 2.98 ERA in 196 innings for the Pirates in '04 and a 3.56 ERA in 177 innings for the Mets in '07. That's what gives me so much optimism about Perez' 2011 season; after putting up BB/9's around 8 for the last 2 seasons for the Mets, Perez made it all the way down to 3.2 for Harrisburg this year. His K/9 rate suffered (6.9 this year, 9.5 career minor league rate), but he could still be a much more effective LOOGY than Doug Slaten. With a career major league line of .226/.317/.374 against lefties, I would be more than happy to see Perez return to pitch in the Nats' organization in 2011 (assuming there were no underlying attitude problems that I didn't hear about).
Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference

2. RHP Shairon Martis
Martis was a kinda bright spot for the 2009 Nats, starting out the season 5-0 despite having crappy overall numbers. After spending the second half of that season and all of last year in Syracuse, Martis found himself in Harrisburg for the entire 2011 season. What happened there was very intriguing. Martis finished the year with a 3.06 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 133 innings, with solid BB and K rates; Martis' 9.9 K/9 from 2011 is a huge improvement over his career numbers (7.3 across the minors for his entire career, 6.1 in AAA and 6.6 in his previous AA stays) and he lowered his BB rate an entire walk from 2010 to '11 (3.6 in AAA in 2010, 2.6 in AA in 2011). Inferior competition could be part of the explanation for his upswing in numbers, but we're still talking a very significant improvement. At 24 now (25 in March), Martis is still young enough to try to turn into a useful ML piece.
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference

3. RHP J.D. Martin
While Martin's upside is low, he's an excellent guy to have around. His control is excellent (2.5 career ML BB/9, 1.4 BB/9 career AAA BB/9) and his results have been decent as well (2.66, 3.51 and 3.93 ERA's in his 3 seasons pitching AAA ball for the Nats and 4.32 ERA in 125 career ML IP). At 29 in January, he's still young enough to make an ML contribution for many organizations, but given the Nats' pitching depth, he will probably have to look elsewhere to get a better shot at getting back to the bigs. The 2012 Astros could very well be a haven for minor league lifers (like the 2006 Nats were), so I would advise Martin's agent to start calling Ed Wade.
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference

4. RHP Garrett Mock
Mock has been a frustrating player to follow since the Nats received him in the Livan Hernandez-to-the-Diamondbacks deal in 2006. His stuff was both never the issue and always the issue, with major inconsistency problems despite having a mid-90s (albeit flat) fastball and solid secondary options. Todd Boss of Nationals Arm Race put it best, calling Mock "a guy with a plus fastball but who has proven time and again that he can’t produce consistent results stays in the system to provide continual tempting of the club management (the leader of whom Rizzo has a soft spot for him, having drafted him while working in Arizona)."

Mock missed most of the 2010 season due to injury and did not recover well this season, putting up a 6.39 ERA in 49 and 1/3 innings spread across four levels. His 9.3 K/9 rate from 2011 is slightly above his 7.8 career average across all levels, but he apparently lost all control of the strike zone at the same time, putting up a BB/9 rate of 5.3 this year. The walk rate is likely an anomaly, as Mock's career BB/9 in the minors is 2.7, but his time in the Nats organization is probably done. Mock is a Houston native, so that could also be a nice fit for him given the Astros' lack of talent across all levels.

5. RHP Luis Atilano
Like Martis, Atilano spent time in DC before being sent all the way down to Harrisburg in 2011. Unlike Martis, he was injured for basically the entire season and gave up 9 runs in 6 innings in the two starts he did make. Even when healthy, Atilano was not a key ML piece but rather a spot starter/injury call-up. Alex Remington of FanGraphs described Atilano best in his 2011 Second Opinion Profile: "The Quick Opinion: A fly-ball pitcher who doesn't miss bats or keep the ball in the park: basically, he's a No. 7 starter."
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference

6. RHP Jimmy Barthmaier
Barthmaier came to the Nats in 2010 after being a highly-regarded prospect in the Astros system in 2005 and 2006, reaching the bigs for the Pirates in 2008 for a cup of coffee and missing all but 1 inning of the 2009 season due to Tommy John Surgery. He pitched well for Potomac in '10 and as a result spent '11 with Harrisburg, posting a nice 9.2 K/9 but failing to recreate his 1.9 BB/9 from the '10 season, posting a 4.1 BB/9 in '11. At 27 years old (28 in January), Barthmaier's role with the Nats if they bring him back is as an organizational soldier, so he might be best off looking for opportunities elsewhere.
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference

7. RHP Sam Brown
After turning down a chance to join the Nats as a 7th rounder in 2006 to attend NC State, Brown finally found himself with the organization in 2011. The 24 year old was not very impressive, throwing 59 innings of 5.34 ERA ball. His 2.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 are decent ratios, but not good enough to lead me to overlook his otherwise mediocre numbers.
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference

8. RHP Carlos Martinez
This organizational soldier may soon have no organization; the 27 year old (28 in March) spent his 7th season with the Nats' organization across three levels, putting up a 6.26 ERA in 69 innings. Having only reached AAA for a grand total of 3 and 1/3 innings at the age of 27 without great rate stats (his decent 2.9 career BB/9 is majorly outweighed by his 4.9 career K/9), Martinez's time in the game is probably close to being up.
FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference