Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Community Top Prospect List: #2
Greetings, Nationals fans. Now that the Nats have signed their draft picks, it is time to continue with the community draft list. In the first poll, OF Bryce Harper was chosen as the Nats' #1 prospect with 93% of the votes.
As I stated before, I'd like to follow a similar format to the Japers' Rink's Ranking the Capitals posts from past summers; basically, each day I'll put up a new poll (you can vote here or on Twitter, follow me @seanhoganvt), asking readers to choose who they think the best prospect listed is. In the comment section, we can duke out our opinions on whether Steve Lombardozzi's grit and performance makes him a better prospect than Eury Perez's speed and raw skills do.
As each post comes and goes, I will also ask readers to leave one name for who they think should be the next candidate on the list.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Nats draft pick updates: Top 5 picks to sign
All of the following reports come from Twitter and are from today unless otherwise noted:
13th round 1B Casey "Ory" Kalenkosky:
When asked what Texas State players had signed/would sign, Tyler Manforth of the San Marcos Daily Record said: "@BryDanElsn Smith hadn't signed last I talked to him, neither has Kalenkosky. I doubt Sibley would either. #TXST should be good." @smdrtyler
Tyler was kind enough to reply to my further questioning, saying "From what I've heard, Ory had a certain amount of money he wanted and if he's not getting it, he's coming back. #TXST."
14th round OF Cody Stubbs:
The Asheville Citizen-Times' twitter account came out with this today: "Tuscola baseball alum Cody Stubbs looks to be headed to UNC rather than signing with Washington Nationals #mlb... fb.me/14oDJc3PW." @acthshuddle
31st round OF Josh Tobias:
Cody Jones of FightinGators.com and Scout.com wrote the following about Tobias on Wednesday, August 10: "#Gators utility player signee Josh Tobias said he isnt talking to the Nationals anymore after they took him in the 31st round. He'll b at UF."
46th round OF Tyler Thompson:
Cody Jones also provided the following updates on Thompson today:
"Might sound weird, but the #Gators player/signee Im most interested in following is 46th round OF Tyler Thompson. He could definitely sign." (from ~2 pm).
"Hearing #Gators OF Tyler Thompson cut off talks with the Nationals and will return for his senior year." (from ~5 pm).
Obviously these four won't be the only to not sign, but they were all potential over-slot guys who draftniks like myself figured might sign if guys like Purke fell through. Hawtin Buchanan, Josh Laxer, Derrick Bleeker and Brett Mooneyham are some names to watch in that situation.
UPDATE 9:35 PM
According to Jim Callis of Baseball America, 4th round pick LHP Kylin Turnbull of Santa Barbara CC has signed for $325,000, about $100,000 above the slot recommendation for the pick. Here is my profile of Turnbull, a lefty with a nice fastball (94 mph now, and at 6'5" and 195 lbs, has room to add more velocity).
UPDATE 9:45 PM
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus just tweeted: "Rumors that Purke will sign with the #Nationals . . . stronger than ever." Rumors are just rumors, but it's still exciting!
UPDATE 10 PM
@FungoFrogTCU on Twitter reportedly has sources that say Purke will sign a ML deal with the Nats. "Things I'm sure on: Deal is close/done, being held, more than $3M w/ a multi year pro contract." Until I hear it from a national baseball writer or local beat writer, I'll remain skeptical, but it's good news for now, especially at the price of $4 mil or below.
UPDATE 11:53 PM
Jon Heyman of SI reports the Nats have signed Brian Goodwin to a deal with a $3 million SB.
UPDATE 12:00 AM
Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports that the Nats have agreed to sign Rendon, Meyer and Purke, with dollar amounts yet to be disclosed.
UPDATE 12:15 AM
John Manuel says Meyer's SB is $2 mil.
UPDATE 12:20 AM
John Heyman of SI reports that Rendon signed a $7.2 million guaranteed ML deal with the Nats.
UPDATE 12:25 AM
Jim Callis of Baseball America says Purke's deal is worth around $4.4 mil and is an ML deal.
13th round 1B Casey "Ory" Kalenkosky:
When asked what Texas State players had signed/would sign, Tyler Manforth of the San Marcos Daily Record said: "@BryDanElsn Smith hadn't signed last I talked to him, neither has Kalenkosky. I doubt Sibley would either. #TXST should be good." @smdrtyler
Tyler was kind enough to reply to my further questioning, saying "From what I've heard, Ory had a certain amount of money he wanted and if he's not getting it, he's coming back. #TXST."
14th round OF Cody Stubbs:
The Asheville Citizen-Times' twitter account came out with this today: "Tuscola baseball alum Cody Stubbs looks to be headed to UNC rather than signing with Washington Nationals #mlb... fb.me/14oDJc3PW." @acthshuddle
31st round OF Josh Tobias:
Cody Jones of FightinGators.com and Scout.com wrote the following about Tobias on Wednesday, August 10: "#Gators utility player signee Josh Tobias said he isnt talking to the Nationals anymore after they took him in the 31st round. He'll b at UF."
46th round OF Tyler Thompson:
Cody Jones also provided the following updates on Thompson today:
"Might sound weird, but the #Gators player/signee Im most interested in following is 46th round OF Tyler Thompson. He could definitely sign." (from ~2 pm).
"Hearing #Gators OF Tyler Thompson cut off talks with the Nationals and will return for his senior year." (from ~5 pm).
Obviously these four won't be the only to not sign, but they were all potential over-slot guys who draftniks like myself figured might sign if guys like Purke fell through. Hawtin Buchanan, Josh Laxer, Derrick Bleeker and Brett Mooneyham are some names to watch in that situation.
UPDATE 9:35 PM
According to Jim Callis of Baseball America, 4th round pick LHP Kylin Turnbull of Santa Barbara CC has signed for $325,000, about $100,000 above the slot recommendation for the pick. Here is my profile of Turnbull, a lefty with a nice fastball (94 mph now, and at 6'5" and 195 lbs, has room to add more velocity).
UPDATE 9:45 PM
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus just tweeted: "Rumors that Purke will sign with the #Nationals . . . stronger than ever." Rumors are just rumors, but it's still exciting!
UPDATE 10 PM
@FungoFrogTCU on Twitter reportedly has sources that say Purke will sign a ML deal with the Nats. "Things I'm sure on: Deal is close/done, being held, more than $3M w/ a multi year pro contract." Until I hear it from a national baseball writer or local beat writer, I'll remain skeptical, but it's good news for now, especially at the price of $4 mil or below.
UPDATE 11:53 PM
Jon Heyman of SI reports the Nats have signed Brian Goodwin to a deal with a $3 million SB.
UPDATE 12:00 AM
Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports that the Nats have agreed to sign Rendon, Meyer and Purke, with dollar amounts yet to be disclosed.
UPDATE 12:15 AM
John Manuel says Meyer's SB is $2 mil.
UPDATE 12:20 AM
John Heyman of SI reports that Rendon signed a $7.2 million guaranteed ML deal with the Nats.
UPDATE 12:25 AM
Jim Callis of Baseball America says Purke's deal is worth around $4.4 mil and is an ML deal.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Nats community top prospect list
Greetings, Nationals fans. The 2011 draft pick signing deadline is about to come and go, and once it does, I think it would be interesting to get a community list of the Nats' top prospects done.
I'd like to follow a similar format to the Japers' Rink's Ranking the Capitals posts from past summers; basically, each day I'll put up a new poll, asking readers to choose who they think the best prospect listed is. In the comment section, we can duke out our opinions on whether Steve Lombardozzi's grit and performance makes him a better prospect than Eury Perez's speed and raw skills do.
As each post comes and goes, I will also ask readers to leave one name for who they think should be the next candidate on the list. For now, let's come up with a preliminary list of 10 names to start with. I just went with the top 10 on my list from last week, but a lot of those names depend on who signs and who does not. Please leave the names of the players you feel should be included in the top 11 (since Bryce Harper will undoubtedly be number one).
Here's what the polls will look like:
Once the ink dries on the Nats' signings, we'll get the ball rolling with our #2 poll. Until then, please vote on the poll (to test it out, mainly) and leave some names for the next list. Thanks!
I'd like to follow a similar format to the Japers' Rink's Ranking the Capitals posts from past summers; basically, each day I'll put up a new poll, asking readers to choose who they think the best prospect listed is. In the comment section, we can duke out our opinions on whether Steve Lombardozzi's grit and performance makes him a better prospect than Eury Perez's speed and raw skills do.
As each post comes and goes, I will also ask readers to leave one name for who they think should be the next candidate on the list. For now, let's come up with a preliminary list of 10 names to start with. I just went with the top 10 on my list from last week, but a lot of those names depend on who signs and who does not. Please leave the names of the players you feel should be included in the top 11 (since Bryce Harper will undoubtedly be number one).
Here's what the polls will look like:
Once the ink dries on the Nats' signings, we'll get the ball rolling with our #2 poll. Until then, please vote on the poll (to test it out, mainly) and leave some names for the next list. Thanks!
Friday, August 12, 2011
A different perspective
I've written about the majors, the minors, the draft, etc. but never really about a current college player. When one of my friends came up to me and said I should post something about her friend, I sorta shrugged it off...that is, until I realized that he's a stud pitcher.
Meet Sean White, a rising senior lefty from Dickinson College in Carlisle, PA. He's thrown a 17 strikeout no-hitter as well as a 21 strikeout game (1 away from the NCAA Division III record). I had the pleasure of interviewing White, and am impressed at his willingness to discuss his college career in depth. I've spoken to former 1st rounder Matt Antonelli, later draft picks like Josh Laxer and Chris Curran and undrafted FA's like Mike Gallo before, but it was nice to get a new perspective from a pitcher in between his junior and senior seasons trying to embark on a long journey to the big leagues.
1) What pitches do you throw? (feel free to include speeds, describe the movement, etc.).
My three main pitches are a four-seam, curve, and changeup. I started to work on a cutter this summer as a potential fourth pitch, but havent used it in a game yet. My fastball by summers' end was 86-87 touching 89....hopefully (I'm) still growing in velocity. My curve-ball is my out pitch. I can use it as a get-me-over which acts more like a slurve, but I love throwing it hard to get some fans. My changeup I had lost my first couple years of college, but I got it back this spring and it has become a definite asset.
2) What baseball achievement or accolade are you most proud of at this point in your career?
The obvious answer is striking out 21 in a game earlier this spring, but truly it was my senior year of high school (The Salisbury School, in Salisbury, CT) when our team went 20-0 and I pitched our championship game.
3) What are your favorite professional sports teams or athletes?
Mets, Jets, Rangers....my family has had Jets season tickets my entire life so they have to be my absolute favorite. I've never really had favorite players on these teams to be honest. Typically players I've idolized have come from other teams.
4) Do you have any routines before starts (such as eating the same food before every game or painting your nails like Dmitri Young)?
The only specific routine I have had at school is that I eat half a PB & J before I pitch, but nothing out of the ordinary.
5) If you could face any one batter in their prime (past or present), who would it be?
I've never really thought about this, but I think it would be someone that I despise, which would give me greater incentive to get them out like a Chase Utley, but I've always wanted to pitch against a middle of a Major League Lineup just to see how I could do.
6) Fill in the blank: Without _______, I would not be a baseball player.
My family, we have always been a huge baseball family, unfortunately I am the only one who kept playing through high school. Mainly it should be my mom who was willing to give up her commitments and supportive to drive me to AAU and travel games far away.
7) What is your major? What do you envision doing after college?
My major is economics; it has always interested me the most, but after college I would live to try and further my baseball career. If that doesn't work out I wouldn't mind working for an organization at some level in the front office.
8) Have you had any contact with MLB scouts or anything to indicate you could be drafted or signed after next year's draft?
In March my coach was contacted by an agency based in Pennsylvania, but we never heard that much since. This past summer I pitched in the NYCBL where my coaches are affiliated with MLB clubs. Hopefully I impressed enough, and I think I did where they will continue their interest in me by passing along what they saw to area scouts. I anticipate to see some at my starts next spring.
(editor's note: Sean's numbers were pretty impressive in the NYCBL, throwing 46 and 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with 31 strikeouts and 12 walks and a component ERA of 2.76.)
9) There is another Sean White that bounced around the Majors for a few> years with the Rockies and Mariners. Any relation?
There is no relation, but I've heard about him, I'm pretty sure he's also a lefty (editor's note: he's not, but that means our Sean White is automatically the best LHP Sean White there is!). Between him and the snowboarder Shaun White it makes it pretty difficult to find out information about me via Google or any search engine (another note: yes, it is very difficult...but at least when he Googles his name, he doesn't first come across the page of a Canadian country singer).
10) Dickinson is not a powerhouse for developing pro athletes. When you entered school, did you expect to progress into an all-conference pitcher?
I chose Dickinson because it is very strong academically, which was a priority, and with the program I knew I could be an impact player as a freshman. I didn't have interest in going to a school where I would be in the bullpen for a couple years before starting. I wanted to be able to make a difference from the start.
11) Are any of your buddies from growing up or college playing pro baseball now? If so, have you used what you've heard from them to prepare for professional baseball?
Two of my high school teammates are pitching in the Minor Leagues currently. Chris Dwyer, LHP (drafted 4th round from Clemson) to the KC Royals, hes now pitching in AA for Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Secondly my high school shortstop Anthony Hewitt was drafted in the 1st round (in 2008) to the Philadelphia Phillies and hes now in high A. I took a ton away from Chris from high school. Its hard not to look up to someone who threw in the low 90's on your high school team. His work ethic was unparalleled and he loves the game. I've seen how hard it is to be a successful player at the next level.
12) Who has been your biggest baseball influence in your life?
My high school pitching coach Duane Estes was a no-nonsense coach, he really helped me grow so much as a pitcher from work ethic to locating to thinking like a pitcher. My mechanics improved a ton under him and I still don't think he's had any major arm injuries since he started coaching. I have taken so much from Salisbury to Dickinson and still use much of the knowledge he has given me.
13) Baseball seems to be one of the most difficult sports to play in college, due to the large number of games you have to play both home and away. Is it particularly difficult to keep up with your schoolwork and social life during the season?
Its funny, I've actually noticed that I do better academically in the spring during the season. I think its because you know you have to buckle down and work hard and because you are already in a much more focused and driven mindset from participating in a college sport. As far as social life, most of my closest friends are on the team so we know we are all in it together and have the same agendas.
14) You've struck out 21 batters in a game (1 away from the D3record) and thrown a no-hitter. Which do you think was a bigger accomplishment?
Its funny because both games were completely different. My no-hitter which I also had 17 strikeouts was against a less talented team, but we were forced into extra innings because of me. I balked in the tying run at one point, which was a pretty bonehead mistake. My concern was winning that game and the no-hitter absolutely took the back seat to that. The 21 strikeout game we dominated the game so there was never much pressure to bear down, I was able to be loose and relaxed all 9 innings. Its hard for me to put them in order, but the 21 strikeout game would be bigger because it was against a conference team.
15) Is it comforting to see good Major League players from smaller and less well-known colleges (like Jordan Zimmermann of the Nationals) make it to the major leagues and succeed?
It is comforting because it allows you to know that it isn't impossible to make a step to the next level from playing D-3 baseball. We see a player drafted from our conference typically every year which is reassuring. I have enough faith in my ability where I don't doubt the possibility of being successful in baseball after college if
given the opportunity.
Big thanks to Sean for the interview and to Sunnie for passing his name along to me! Given Sean's good peripheral stats, good attitude and hatred of Chase Utley, I think he'd be a perfect fit in the 2012 Nationals Draft class.
1) What pitches do you throw? (feel free to include speeds, describe the movement, etc.).
My three main pitches are a four-seam, curve, and changeup. I started to work on a cutter this summer as a potential fourth pitch, but havent used it in a game yet. My fastball by summers' end was 86-87 touching 89....hopefully (I'm) still growing in velocity. My curve-ball is my out pitch. I can use it as a get-me-over which acts more like a slurve, but I love throwing it hard to get some fans. My changeup I had lost my first couple years of college, but I got it back this spring and it has become a definite asset.
2) What baseball achievement or accolade are you most proud of at this point in your career?
The obvious answer is striking out 21 in a game earlier this spring, but truly it was my senior year of high school (The Salisbury School, in Salisbury, CT) when our team went 20-0 and I pitched our championship game.
3) What are your favorite professional sports teams or athletes?
Mets, Jets, Rangers....my family has had Jets season tickets my entire life so they have to be my absolute favorite. I've never really had favorite players on these teams to be honest. Typically players I've idolized have come from other teams.
4) Do you have any routines before starts (such as eating the same food before every game or painting your nails like Dmitri Young)?
The only specific routine I have had at school is that I eat half a PB & J before I pitch, but nothing out of the ordinary.
5) If you could face any one batter in their prime (past or present), who would it be?
I've never really thought about this, but I think it would be someone that I despise, which would give me greater incentive to get them out like a Chase Utley, but I've always wanted to pitch against a middle of a Major League Lineup just to see how I could do.
6) Fill in the blank: Without _______, I would not be a baseball player.
My family, we have always been a huge baseball family, unfortunately I am the only one who kept playing through high school. Mainly it should be my mom who was willing to give up her commitments and supportive to drive me to AAU and travel games far away.
7) What is your major? What do you envision doing after college?
My major is economics; it has always interested me the most, but after college I would live to try and further my baseball career. If that doesn't work out I wouldn't mind working for an organization at some level in the front office.
8) Have you had any contact with MLB scouts or anything to indicate you could be drafted or signed after next year's draft?
In March my coach was contacted by an agency based in Pennsylvania, but we never heard that much since. This past summer I pitched in the NYCBL where my coaches are affiliated with MLB clubs. Hopefully I impressed enough, and I think I did where they will continue their interest in me by passing along what they saw to area scouts. I anticipate to see some at my starts next spring.
(editor's note: Sean's numbers were pretty impressive in the NYCBL, throwing 46 and 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with 31 strikeouts and 12 walks and a component ERA of 2.76.)
9) There is another Sean White that bounced around the Majors for a few> years with the Rockies and Mariners. Any relation?
There is no relation, but I've heard about him, I'm pretty sure he's also a lefty (editor's note: he's not, but that means our Sean White is automatically the best LHP Sean White there is!). Between him and the snowboarder Shaun White it makes it pretty difficult to find out information about me via Google or any search engine (another note: yes, it is very difficult...but at least when he Googles his name, he doesn't first come across the page of a Canadian country singer).
10) Dickinson is not a powerhouse for developing pro athletes. When you entered school, did you expect to progress into an all-conference pitcher?
I chose Dickinson because it is very strong academically, which was a priority, and with the program I knew I could be an impact player as a freshman. I didn't have interest in going to a school where I would be in the bullpen for a couple years before starting. I wanted to be able to make a difference from the start.
11) Are any of your buddies from growing up or college playing pro baseball now? If so, have you used what you've heard from them to prepare for professional baseball?
Two of my high school teammates are pitching in the Minor Leagues currently. Chris Dwyer, LHP (drafted 4th round from Clemson) to the KC Royals, hes now pitching in AA for Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Secondly my high school shortstop Anthony Hewitt was drafted in the 1st round (in 2008) to the Philadelphia Phillies and hes now in high A. I took a ton away from Chris from high school. Its hard not to look up to someone who threw in the low 90's on your high school team. His work ethic was unparalleled and he loves the game. I've seen how hard it is to be a successful player at the next level.
12) Who has been your biggest baseball influence in your life?
My high school pitching coach Duane Estes was a no-nonsense coach, he really helped me grow so much as a pitcher from work ethic to locating to thinking like a pitcher. My mechanics improved a ton under him and I still don't think he's had any major arm injuries since he started coaching. I have taken so much from Salisbury to Dickinson and still use much of the knowledge he has given me.
13) Baseball seems to be one of the most difficult sports to play in college, due to the large number of games you have to play both home and away. Is it particularly difficult to keep up with your schoolwork and social life during the season?
Its funny, I've actually noticed that I do better academically in the spring during the season. I think its because you know you have to buckle down and work hard and because you are already in a much more focused and driven mindset from participating in a college sport. As far as social life, most of my closest friends are on the team so we know we are all in it together and have the same agendas.
14) You've struck out 21 batters in a game (1 away from the D3record) and thrown a no-hitter. Which do you think was a bigger accomplishment?
Its funny because both games were completely different. My no-hitter which I also had 17 strikeouts was against a less talented team, but we were forced into extra innings because of me. I balked in the tying run at one point, which was a pretty bonehead mistake. My concern was winning that game and the no-hitter absolutely took the back seat to that. The 21 strikeout game we dominated the game so there was never much pressure to bear down, I was able to be loose and relaxed all 9 innings. Its hard for me to put them in order, but the 21 strikeout game would be bigger because it was against a conference team.
15) Is it comforting to see good Major League players from smaller and less well-known colleges (like Jordan Zimmermann of the Nationals) make it to the major leagues and succeed?
It is comforting because it allows you to know that it isn't impossible to make a step to the next level from playing D-3 baseball. We see a player drafted from our conference typically every year which is reassuring. I have enough faith in my ability where I don't doubt the possibility of being successful in baseball after college if
given the opportunity.
Big thanks to Sean for the interview and to Sunnie for passing his name along to me! Given Sean's good peripheral stats, good attitude and hatred of Chase Utley, I think he'd be a perfect fit in the 2012 Nationals Draft class.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Nats "expected to sign" top 4 picks?
Per Adam Kilgore of the Post: "Rizzo has spoken with the representatives for the players but hasn’t made significant headway. Again, though, it would be more surprising if the Nationals were nearing agreements. The Nationals are still expected to sign all four players by the deadline." I'm not surprised at all about Rendon, Goodwin and Meyer, but Purke is expected to sign? Yipee!
Signing all 4 of these guys (plus Kylin Turnbull, the Nats' 4th rounder) would be HUGE. If all of them do sign, I would put my Nats top prospects list as follows:
(note - I edited these on 8/8/11 at 5 pm EST. Original list can be found in the comments)
1 - Bryce Harper
2 - Anthony Rendon
3 - Matt Purke
4 - Brad Peacock
5 - A.J. Cole
6 - Derek Norris
7 - Alex Meyer
8 - Brian Goodwin
9 - Destin Hood
10 - Chris Marrero
11 - Robbie Ray
12 - Sammy Solis
13 - Stephen Lombardozzi
14 - Tom Milone
15 - Brad Meyers
16 - Eury Perez
17 - Zach Walters
18 - Erik Komatsu
19 - David Freitas
20 - Kylin Turnbull
21 - Danny Rosenbaum
22 - Matt Skole
23 - Rick Hague
24 - Jack McGeary
25 - Josh Smoker
26 - Tyler Moore
27 - J.P. Ramirez
28 - Randolph Oduber
29 - Jason Martinson
30 - Corey Brown
What do you guys think about a list like this?
Also, head on over to 2011 Nationals Draft Info and check out each player's profile: Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke.
Signing all 4 of these guys (plus Kylin Turnbull, the Nats' 4th rounder) would be HUGE. If all of them do sign, I would put my Nats top prospects list as follows:
(note - I edited these on 8/8/11 at 5 pm EST. Original list can be found in the comments)
1 - Bryce Harper
2 - Anthony Rendon
3 - Matt Purke
4 - Brad Peacock
5 - A.J. Cole
6 - Derek Norris
7 - Alex Meyer
8 - Brian Goodwin
9 - Destin Hood
10 - Chris Marrero
11 - Robbie Ray
12 - Sammy Solis
13 - Stephen Lombardozzi
14 - Tom Milone
15 - Brad Meyers
16 - Eury Perez
17 - Zach Walters
18 - Erik Komatsu
19 - David Freitas
20 - Kylin Turnbull
21 - Danny Rosenbaum
22 - Matt Skole
23 - Rick Hague
24 - Jack McGeary
25 - Josh Smoker
26 - Tyler Moore
27 - J.P. Ramirez
28 - Randolph Oduber
29 - Jason Martinson
30 - Corey Brown
What do you guys think about a list like this?
Also, head on over to 2011 Nationals Draft Info and check out each player's profile: Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Wandy Rodriguez should be a Washington National
The trade deadline has come and passed, and the Nats made only a few moves, landing Jonny Gomes while moving Jason Marquis and Jerry Hairston. At the same time, the Astros sold off most of their stars, moving Michael Bourn to the Braves and Hunter Pence to the Phillies while holding onto lefty starter Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy was thought to be very available due to the years and dollars left on his contract (3 years at $36 million), with one GM going so far as to tell SI's Jon Heyman that "Nobody's going to touch Wandy" due to his contract, despite the fact that he has ERA's of 3.54, 3.02, 3.60 and 3.47 in the past 4 seasons in a fairly neutral park to both hitters and pitchers. It appears that Wandy's trade value is very low, but his value to a team like the Washington Nationals would be high.
And for what it's worth, what are the chances the Nats can sign a comparable pitcher on the free agent market to a 3 year, $36 million deal? The contract is short enough that even if he busts it won't be a complete albatross.
The only person that knows for sure is Ed Wade, the GM of the Astros, But given the fact that multiple outlets have reported no team will claim Rodriguez and that he could be available on the cheap, bloggers like me get to write fun posts like this in speculation that the Nats won't have to give up star prospects for him. Wandy will hit waivers at sometime this month, and the Nationals will around the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, Rockies, Reds, Marlins and Mets in the waiver order, giving them a solid shot at landing him if they want him.
Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (NJ) wrote on Saturday about the feasibility of a Rodriguez trade to the Yankees, noting that "according to the person with knowledge, if the clubs can agree on cash considerations, the Astros may be willing to part with Rodriguez without asking for top-end prospects which the Yankees have tried to protect."
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted on July 26, "AL exec: said: #Astros asked big return on Wandy Rodriguez few weeks back, 'will take little at deadline to get rid of most of his contract'"
I figure the Astros would ask for 2 solid prospects, potentially targeting the likes of Sammy Solis, Tom Milone, Steve Lombardozzi, Eury Perez and Destin Hood. I doubt the Nats would give up any 2 of those players, but I could see them pairing one with a recent draft pick like Rick Hague (a Houston-area native, no less).
If you want another perspective on the Nats trying to acquire Wandy, check out Steve Shoup's article over at FanSpeak.
Argument 1: Rodriguez is a great pitcher with few risks over his contract length.
The former is the easiest argument to make; for the past four seasons, Rodriguez is (as of August 2, 2011) 41-38 with a 3.38 ERA in 660 IP. Over that time, Wandy's peripheral stats have been solid as well, with a 1.279 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9. His FIP's over the last 4 years have been 3.62, 3.54, 3.50 and 3.89 while his xFIP's have been 3.70, 3.57, 3.55 and 3.52. In other words, Wandy is an above-average pitcher no matter which way you look at it.
While he is 32 years old now (and would be 35 at the end of his contract), he has a relatively low amount of wear and tear on his arm, only surpassing 200 innings once in his career. His injury history is fairly brief and low-risk (short DL stint for fluid in his elbow in 5/2011, missed one Spring Training start in 3/2011 due to mild shoulder tendinitis, missed 6 weeks in 2008 due to a groin strain). The only extended amount of time he's recently missed was for the groin pull, and he has started at least 26 games every season since 2003.
While he is 32 years old now (and would be 35 at the end of his contract), he has a relatively low amount of wear and tear on his arm, only surpassing 200 innings once in his career. His injury history is fairly brief and low-risk (short DL stint for fluid in his elbow in 5/2011, missed one Spring Training start in 3/2011 due to mild shoulder tendinitis, missed 6 weeks in 2008 due to a groin strain). The only extended amount of time he's recently missed was for the groin pull, and he has started at least 26 games every season since 2003.
Argument 2: The Nationals have the ability to add his salary without much, if any, assistance from the Astros.
Rodriguez makes $10 million in 2012, $13 million in 2013 and has a $13 million club option for 2014 that becomes a player option if traded, so essentially he comes at the price of 3 years, $36 million (plus a little more than $2 million left on his $7 mil contract this season). Money is an issue for many teams under tight budgets, but the Nationals are not one of those teams.The Nationals, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, have $44.596 million in salary commitments next season to the following players: Werth, Zimmerman, Laroche, Strasburg, Maya, Harper and Burnett. The Nationals will have to give Lannan, Gorzelanny, Morse, Flores, Slaten, Clippard and Zimmermann arbitration raises and replace or re-sign the likes of Pudge, Gomes, Ankiel, Coffey, Livo, Wang, Cora and Nix, but we're still talking about commitments in the $60-65 million range next season with a starting lineup set at all positions but CF (LaRoche at 1B and Morse at LF is more likely than not to happen, like it or not, due to LaRoche's contract) and a rotation starting with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan and Gorzelanny (plus any pending FA starters the Nats retain, Maya, Detwiler, Peacock, etc.). The 2012 free agent market is pretty mediocre in general, and while the Nats could make a run at studs like Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and Rollins who could take over positions in need, they could also stick with Morse at 1B and Desmond at SS (not necessarily should, but could).
The 2013 free agent market has plenty of high-end talent (Hamilton, Kemp, Greinke, Cain, Bourn, Upton, Ethier, Hamels, etc.) and even more players under club options (McCann, Stephen Drew, Wright, Youkilis, Granderson, Haren, Ervin Santana, Shields, Soria, Street, etc). The Nats will have to start thinking about the final year of Ryan Zimmerman's contract, but the only player who is controllable now that won't be by then is Doug Slaten. The Nats will have to give out some more raises, but will hold options on LaRoche and Burnett. Jayson Werth's contract is awful, but the Nats haven't given out any other long-term contracts outside of Zimmerman, giving them an incredible amount of short-term flexibility.
2014 is the year to wonder about, as the Nats will start having to worry about players like Strasburg, Harper, Storen, Clippard, Desmond, Zimmermann and Espinosa hitting arbitration (or later stages thereof). Still, if the Nats give out standard back-loaded contracts, they will have no major problem fitting in Wandy's $13 million salary here.
And for what it's worth, what are the chances the Nats can sign a comparable pitcher on the free agent market to a 3 year, $36 million deal? The contract is short enough that even if he busts it won't be a complete albatross.
Argument 3: The Astros want to shed his salary, and could either let him go for nothing on a waiver claim or for cheap if a team is willing to pick up his whole salary.
The only person that knows for sure is Ed Wade, the GM of the Astros, But given the fact that multiple outlets have reported no team will claim Rodriguez and that he could be available on the cheap, bloggers like me get to write fun posts like this in speculation that the Nats won't have to give up star prospects for him. Wandy will hit waivers at sometime this month, and the Nationals will around the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, Rockies, Reds, Marlins and Mets in the waiver order, giving them a solid shot at landing him if they want him.
Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (NJ) wrote on Saturday about the feasibility of a Rodriguez trade to the Yankees, noting that "according to the person with knowledge, if the clubs can agree on cash considerations, the Astros may be willing to part with Rodriguez without asking for top-end prospects which the Yankees have tried to protect."
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted on July 26, "AL exec: said: #Astros asked big return on Wandy Rodriguez few weeks back, 'will take little at deadline to get rid of most of his contract'"
I figure the Astros would ask for 2 solid prospects, potentially targeting the likes of Sammy Solis, Tom Milone, Steve Lombardozzi, Eury Perez and Destin Hood. I doubt the Nats would give up any 2 of those players, but I could see them pairing one with a recent draft pick like Rick Hague (a Houston-area native, no less).
If you want another perspective on the Nats trying to acquire Wandy, check out Steve Shoup's article over at FanSpeak.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Bryan Harper signs
According to Bryan Harper's personal twitter page (@BHarp45), the University of South Carolina lefty has agreed to terms with the Nats. Stuff-wise, Harper is a great talent, but he needs to improve his consistency and control during his time with the Nationals if he wants to reach the bigs.
Please visit Harper's profile page on 2011 Nats Draft Info for more!
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