Zimmerman for McCutchen?

Talking about trading one of your most popular franchise players is often not a wise thing to do; you don't see many Brewers fans chanting "trade Ryan Braun," Red Sox bandwagonites asking to get Tacoby Bellsbury out of town or Stuart Sternberg (the only Rays fan in existence) trying to find Evan Longoria a new cap. Yet here I stand, suggesting that the Nationals move Ryan Zimmerman for the apparently (and idiotically) available Andrew McCutchen.

Let me first start with why the Nats should entertain the idea of moving Zimmerman in general. One note: I'm not screaming TRADE ZIMMERMAN, as he is an immensely valuable player...simply stating that his value to the Nats may be at his highest now.

1) Zimmerman is relatively expensive now ($12 mil in 2012, $14 mil in 2013) and will be a free agent after the 2013 season. Adam Kilgore in August spitballed the idea of an 8 year, $175 million deal for Zim ($21.875 mil/year); an extension could end up lower than that, but we're still talking about a major, MAJOR investment. McCutchen, on the other hand, is under team control through 2015, still one season away from arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that the Justin Upton 6 year, $51.75 mil contract could be a model for a McCutchen extension, but even a 6 year, $60 million deal would be a bargain.

2) Zimmerman's injury history, while perhaps overstated, still exists. He played in only 106 games in 2008 due to a small tear in his left shoulder, couldn't finish the last 10 days 2010 season because of a rib sprain and missed significant time in 2011 due to abdominal injuries. I'm much more worried about Rendon's injury history than Zimmerman's, but it's still at least a minor point of concern. Besides missing a few games due to a bum hand from being hit by pitch, McCutchen hasn't been significantly injured in his 2 years of MLB service

3) Zimmerman is an elite 3B, but 3B's are a lot easier to come by than CF's. The Nats have Rendon in the system behind him already (top prospects aren't slam dunks, but Rendon >>> anything the Nats have in CF). It's basically impossible to find an elite CF, which makes an already above-average CF like McCutchen so valuable.


On July 18, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs listed Zimmerman as the player with the tenth greatest trade value. His write-up:

Zimmerman is one of the game’s best players, but also one of the game’s best kept secrets. He is consistently ignored in things like All-Star placement and MVP voting despite the fact that he’s one of the best players in baseball. Because he’s not a premier power guy or an up-the-middle player and his value is largely tied to his defensive excellence, his excellence gets lost in the crowd, but it shouldn’t. He’s awesome. At $26 million over the next two years, he’s also one of the cheapest elite players in baseball, though the lack a true long term deal drags him down a bit. Still, his present value is sky high, and offsets most of the lack of value beyond 2013.

McCutchen came in at number six on Cameron's list:

Already a terrific all-around player, McCutchen has added power this year and made himself into a legitimate MVP candidate at age 24. His broad base of skills suggests that he’ll age extremely well, there’s no injury history to worry about, and the Pirates control his rights for four more years after this one. They haven’t yet locked him up to a long term deal, but even if he goes through the arbitration process, he’ll still be a tremendous bargain. If you want to start handing out praise for why baseball is relevant in Pittsburgh again, start with McCutchen.

There are many factors that can't be measured objectively, such as Zimmerman's local ties (grew up in the Tidewater area and went to UVA) or his charity work with the ziMS Foundation, but from a strictly baseball-oriented point of view, I think the Nats would be foolish to not make a trade like this if it were ever on the table.

This all being said, the Pirates probably aren't really shopping McCutchen and despite his 2011 awfulness, Pedro Alvarez is still a solid prospect at 3B for them. But who knows.

Vote in the poll:

Wandy Rodriguez should be a Washington National

The trade deadline has come and passed, and the Nats made only a few moves, landing Jonny Gomes while moving Jason Marquis and Jerry Hairston. At the same time, the Astros sold off most of their stars, moving Michael Bourn to the Braves and Hunter Pence to the Phillies while holding onto lefty starter Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy was thought to be very available due to the years and dollars left on his contract (3 years at $36 million), with one GM going so far as to tell SI's Jon Heyman that "Nobody's going to touch Wandy" due to his contract, despite the fact that he has ERA's of 3.54, 3.02, 3.60 and 3.47 in the past 4 seasons in a fairly neutral park to both hitters and pitchers. It appears that Wandy's trade value is very low, but his value to a team like the Washington Nationals would be high.

Argument 1: Rodriguez is a great pitcher with few risks over his contract length.

The former is the easiest argument to make; for the past four seasons, Rodriguez is (as of August 2, 2011) 41-38 with a 3.38 ERA in 660 IP. Over that time, Wandy's peripheral stats have been solid as well, with a 1.279 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9. His FIP's over the last 4 years have been 3.62, 3.54, 3.50 and 3.89 while his xFIP's have been 3.70, 3.57, 3.55 and 3.52. In other words, Wandy is an above-average pitcher no matter which way you look at it.

While he is 32 years old now (and would be 35 at the end of his contract), he has a relatively low amount of wear and tear on his arm, only surpassing 200 innings once in his career. His injury history is fairly brief and low-risk (short DL stint for fluid in his elbow in 5/2011, missed one Spring Training start in 3/2011 due to mild shoulder tendinitis, missed 6 weeks in 2008 due to a groin strain). The only extended amount of time he's recently missed was for the groin pull, and he has started at least 26 games every season since 2003.

Argument 2: The Nationals have the ability to add his salary without much, if any, assistance from the Astros.

Rodriguez makes $10 million in 2012, $13 million in 2013 and has a $13 million club option for 2014 that becomes a player option if traded, so essentially he comes at the price of 3 years, $36 million (plus a little more than $2 million left on his $7 mil contract this season). Money is an issue for many teams under tight budgets, but the Nationals are not one of those teams.

The Nationals, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, have $44.596 million in salary commitments next season to the following players: Werth, Zimmerman, Laroche, Strasburg, Maya, Harper and Burnett. The Nationals will have to give Lannan, Gorzelanny, Morse, Flores, Slaten, Clippard and Zimmermann arbitration raises and replace or re-sign the likes of Pudge, Gomes, Ankiel, Coffey, Livo, Wang, Cora and Nix, but we're still talking about commitments in the $60-65 million range next season with a starting lineup set at all positions but CF (LaRoche at 1B and Morse at LF is more likely than not to happen, like it or not, due to LaRoche's contract) and a rotation starting with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan and Gorzelanny (plus any pending FA starters the Nats retain, Maya, Detwiler, Peacock, etc.). The 2012 free agent market is pretty mediocre in general, and while the Nats could make a run at studs like Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and Rollins who could take over positions in need, they could also stick with Morse at 1B and Desmond at SS (not necessarily should, but could).

The 2013 free agent market has plenty of high-end talent (Hamilton, Kemp, Greinke, Cain, Bourn, Upton, Ethier, Hamels, etc.) and even more players under club options (McCann, Stephen Drew, Wright, Youkilis, Granderson, Haren, Ervin Santana, Shields, Soria, Street, etc). The Nats will have to start thinking about the final year of Ryan Zimmerman's contract, but the only player who is controllable now that won't be by then is Doug Slaten. The Nats will have to give out some more raises, but will hold options on LaRoche and Burnett. Jayson Werth's contract is awful, but the Nats haven't given out any other long-term contracts outside of Zimmerman, giving them an incredible amount of short-term flexibility.

2014 is the year to wonder about, as the Nats will start having to worry about players like Strasburg, Harper, Storen, Clippard, Desmond, Zimmermann and Espinosa hitting arbitration (or later stages thereof). Still, if the Nats give out standard back-loaded contracts, they will have no major problem fitting in Wandy's $13 million salary here.

And for what it's worth, what are the chances the Nats can sign a comparable pitcher on the free agent market to a 3 year, $36 million deal? The contract is short enough that even if he busts it won't be a complete albatross.

Argument 3: The Astros want to shed his salary, and could either let him go for nothing on a waiver claim or for cheap if a team is willing to pick up his whole salary.

The only person that knows for sure is Ed Wade, the GM of the Astros, But given the fact that multiple outlets have reported no team will claim Rodriguez and that he could be available on the cheap, bloggers like me get to write fun posts like this in speculation that the Nats won't have to give up star prospects for him. Wandy will hit waivers at sometime this month, and the Nationals will around the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, Rockies, Reds, Marlins and Mets in the waiver order, giving them a solid shot at landing him if they want him.

Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (NJ) wrote on Saturday about the feasibility of a Rodriguez trade to the Yankees, noting that "according to the person with knowledge, if the clubs can agree on cash considerations, the Astros may be willing to part with Rodriguez without asking for top-end prospects which the Yankees have tried to protect."

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted on July 26, "AL exec: said: #Astros asked big return on Wandy Rodriguez few weeks back, 'will take little at deadline to get rid of most of his contract'"

I figure the Astros would ask for 2 solid prospects, potentially targeting the likes of Sammy Solis, Tom Milone, Steve Lombardozzi, Eury Perez and Destin Hood. I doubt the Nats would give up any 2 of those players, but I could see them pairing one with a recent draft pick like Rick Hague (a Houston-area native, no less).

If you want another perspective on the Nats trying to acquire Wandy, check out Steve Shoup's article over at FanSpeak.

Coffey for Borbon?

Ken Rosenthal wrote following nugget to his column on Monday, June 6: "Add the Nationals’ Todd Coffey to the list of relievers in whom the Rangers are showing interest. The Rangers even have a player who would fit the Nats’ need for a leadoff man and center fielder: Julio Borbon. Of course, it’s doubtful the Rangers would trade a potential everyday player for a seventh-inning reliever. Still, Borbon could be a chip, given the Rangers’ depth in center field." On a normal week, I would have written about this immediately after it was brought up, but as you might have noticed, I was a little busy writing a ton of posts about the draft. Now that I've completed the draft posts, I finally have time to look at whether or not Coffey for Borbon would be a trade the Nationals should make.

First, a look at Coffey: The XL reliever has been solid for the Nationals this year, posting a 2.28 ERA, 8.75 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9. His FIP is a spectacular 2.69, but his xFIP at 3.44 suggests that he may have gotten a bit lucky with his numbers, including a .234 BABIP (.318 career BABIP against) and a 3.7% HR/FB (12.6% career HR/FB%). Even though we should expect a little regression from Coffey, he should still be a valuable late-inning reliever for the Nationals for the rest of the season. That being said, Coffey should be eligible for free agency after the season. If the Nationals don't move him now, they may lose him later without compensation, and even if they trade him, they can always resign him in December.

If the Nationals traded Coffey, who would take over his role? Sean Burnett has struggled all season and Drew Storen has gone through a few rough outings recently. While Tyler Clippard is still pitching well, it would be risky for the Nationals to move one of their most consistent relievers. Henry Rodriguez could step things up, but he has been inconsistent. Maya could be shifted to the bullpen when Gorzelanny is activated from the DL, or he could be sent to AAA and a reliever such as Collin Balester could be called up instead.

Is Julio Borbon any good? That is yet to be seen. The 2007 supplemental first round pick has spent parts of the last three seasons in the majors, compiling a .284/.324/.358 batting line in 745 plate appearances. Borbon has basically no power and essentially refuses to take a free pass, with a 5.0 career BB% largely fueled by his 8.4% walk rate during his rookie 46-game stint. He does have blazing speed (40/53 career SB) and plays good defense, albeit with a poor arm. The streaky player's true ML talent level is yet to be seen, as would be semi-expected with a 25 year old player with toolsy roots. Fortunately, the Nats have consistent playing time to offer Borbon in CF (that is, if they're willing to end the Ankiel as a starting player/leadoff hitter experiment). He has room to grow and could potentially develop into the player the Nationals thought they had in Nyjer Morgan, but younger and a better base-runner.

If a Coffey for Borbon trade was on the table (and there is no indication that such an offer ever was proposed), the Nats should take it in a heartbeat. Borbon will not be arbitration-eligible until after the 2012 and will be under team control for 4 years in total. I am in favor of a losing team trading free agent-to-be relievers for position players in pretty much any situation and think that the Nats should certainly trade a relief pitcher that could walk after the season for 4 and 1/2 years of a potential starting CF/leadoff man any and every day...if, that is, the offer is on the table.