Wednesday, April 11, 2012

On the farm update - 4/12/12

Before I say anything else: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. Stats from the first 5-7 games of the season are not statistically significant enough to draw any conclusions. I will use them to hopelessly buy in to the encouraging trends some players are showing and at the same time dismiss discouraging trends due to small sample size.

Looking good so far:
Corey Brown - One of my personal favorites, Brown is hitting .409/.536/.636 in his first 6 AAA games, including a 5 BB/2 K ratio. Given his poor 47 BB/136 K ratio from AAA and ML in 2011, the early plate discipline is encouraging. 

Tyler Moore - Gotta give a guy I'm not as high on as most credit. Moore has only struck out 3 times in his first 6 games 21 at bats and has walked 3 times as well. Coming from a guy that generally strikes out an average of once per game and walks about once every four, I'm pleased to start the year.

Yunesky Maya - Oh yes, I went there. #1 on our least wanted list threw 6 shutout innings in his 2012 Syracuse debut with 4 K's, 4 hits and 0 BB allowed. Again, SMALLSAMPLESIZEOMGMAYASTILLSUCKS.

Zach Duke - Had a similar start to Maya, except with 1 run and 1 BB allowed. Duke will always be somewhat overrated because of his awesome 2005 rookie half-season, but is still a useful ML pitcher, and I would be surprised not to see him at some point this year.
Jeff Kobernus - Everything is fueled by an astronomic BABIP, but a .406/.424/.469 first week with 5/6 SB and 6 runs deserves a mention.

Jason Martinson - Already has 10 BB and 10 K through 7 games. 13 runs, 2 HR and a perfect 6/6 on SB attempts make him stick out compared to the others in the organization.

David Freitas - He's thought to be a below average defensive catcher, so his bat needs to carry him to the big leagues. At this rate, he's in good shape; David is hitting .467/.500/.733 so far this year.

Matt Skole - 10 K's in 23 AB's is a little bit disconcerting, but he has hits in most of his non-K at-bats and is at .348/.429/.565 so far.

Caleb Ramsey - .304/.360/.391. Get used to it.

Nathan Karns - 10 K and 2 hits allowed through his first 7 innings pitched. 

Alex Meyer - 5 scoreless frames in his MiLB debut with 2 hits allowed, 0 BB and 4 K.

Doing better than you think:
Bryce Harper - He's still like 14 years old and playing in AAA. .261/.320/.391 is okay for now. He still needs more minor league time, though. I am a part of a very small minority it seems that thinks Harper should be called up no earlier than August. His bat is likely going to face a significant adjustment when he hits the bigs for the first time, and it's probably not going to help the team all that much. So why burn future money to see a future star disappoint when you can save the hype train for a rainy day (like, say, when Strasburg gets shut down for the year).

Not looking so good:
Jason Michaels - 1 for his first 13. His days of being a borderline ML roster player are behind him, but I'm sure he'll be a solid veteran presence in Syracuse.

Rafael Martin - Another of my personal favorites, at least until he gave up 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning on Sunday.

The rotation behind Maya and Duke - Woof. Tanner Roark got busted up in his second outing and wasn't spectacular in his first, either. Mitch Atkins found a way to allow 4 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings with only 1 unearned run allowed to show for it, but he probably won't get that lucky again. John Lannan got bombed, as we all know by now.
Harrisburg's plate discipline - No batter has more than 2 walks, and none of the prospect types (Kobernus, Perez, Hood) have more than 1. If you have poor plate discipline, you will get eaten alive by better pitching. These guys need to develop it at lower levels so when they get to AAA or the bigs, the holes in their swings won't be taken advantage of in every at bat.

The guys in Potomac that I like - Michael Taylor is hitting .176/.364/.235 (yay walks!) but has been caught in all 3 SB attempts. Kevin Keyes is hitting .100/.182/.100. The "Groovin' Aruban" Randolph Oduber is at .158/.200/.211. Hopefully these guys will warm up and start hitting like Freitas.

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